Morning Brew January 26 2022
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Heading into the FOMC markets remain nervous
Markets are settling down a little ahead of the fed meeting, US indexes traded weakly yesterday losing overall: Dow -0.2%, S&P 1.2%, Nasdaq 2.3%, over night, futures add app 0.5%. Futures are trading at 4356 for the S&P500 the Dow Jones at 34205 and the Nasdaq 14206, the Dax 15200 and the Eurostoxx 50 at 4100. The Vix closed above 30 after hitting 15moth highs.
GE and Microsoft lost 6 and 5% respectively after disappointing earnings. Overall volumes dropped with 13 bio shares traded vs more than 18 bio on Monday,
All eyes are on the Fed tonight with the rate outlook. The expectation is for no change at this meeting but a plan for March and a fast pace of tapering. The Rate decision is at 20:00 CET and the press conference starts 30 minutes later. Also, Tesla Earnings will be in focus after the stock has lost 30% off the highs.
FX and Rates are fairly calm ahead of the FOMC, the USD Index remains near 96, EURUSD is trading 1.13 and GPBUSD 1.35, Gold remains strong on the break above 1835, currently at 1846, Silver fails to follow and remains at 23.70. Bitcoin can stabilize and rise to 37500.
After the presentation of our Quarterly Outlook, Fuelling the Energy Crisis feel free to join our webinar today at 13:00 CET, please sign up here: Upcoming events and webinars | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
U.S. President Joe Biden said on Tuesday he would consider personal sanctions on President Vladimir Putin if Russia invades Ukraine
A Report on Boris Johnson's Downing Street party could be published today as the matter broadens with Scotland Yard investigating a second event that may have violated corona regulations.
Key Economic Data:
Wednesday: Canada Rate decision, US Rate decision
Thursday: US Durable Goods orders and GDP
Friday: Swiss KOF, EU Business Climate, Personal Income, US PCE, University of Michigan Consumer Confidence.
Wednesday: Christian Dior, Boeing, Anthem, , Tesla, Intel, Abbott Laboratories, AT&T,
Thursday: Diageo, Danaher, Apple, Visa, LVMH, Mastercard, Comcast, McDonald's, SAP SE, Blackstone,
Friday: Charter Communications, Chevron Caterpillar
Latest Market Insights
Q4 Outlook 2022: Winter is coming
- Winter is coming to the financial markets as central banks are tightening their grip. How spring will look is still a question.
European energy crisis: it will get worse before it gets betterThe winter in Europe will be tough, but whether the result is political chaos or sustainable, innovative solutions is still undecided.
A difficult and volatile quarter awaitsAs the year draws to an end, commodities continue to be at centre stage of the world with growth pockets political uncertainty.
The bright side: crises drive innovationThe positive spin on crises is that they come with solutions. It is worrisome that deglobalisation may be a response to this crisis.
Green transformation in China: renewable energy and beyondGoing green, China needs to span numerous energy sources to ensure stability, as every source comes with a challenge.
Asia: Intermittent solutions, but a faster renewable adoption curveAsian energy supply is being squeezed. This and the adoption of renewables may change the investment sentiment in the region.
FX: A Fed thaw needed to deliver a sustained USD turn lowerThe US Dollar can keep momentum when the Federal Reserve continues to tighten, leaving the rest to play to their drum.
Autumn can become ugly for equities and bond holders. Comfort for Dollar longsTechnical analysis suggests that equities could face a tough Q4 as could fixed income. US Dollar positions could provide some upside.
The next stock market sector to watch, with stocks going nuclearAs the world scrambles to find affordable, sustainable energy, nuclear is getting attention from politicians and investors alike.
The crypto space is getting cold when the hype disappearsCryptocurrencies face a winter of their own as retail investors and governments are asking tough questions.