Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew February 24 2023

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Good Morning,

We are in a rather interesting market situation.  A recent Poll on the US500 by Reuters shows quite well the overall uncertainty. The average assumption is for the US500 to close the year at 4200 of approximately 5% above current levels. BUT the gap between the best and the worst target is reported at 40%, the highest since the global financial crisis. 70% of analysts polled see a high chance for a correction.

Our CIO Risk Monitor also shows a high probability of a risk off move.

It wight be worth to consider taking some profits or hedging gains if you are also on the cautious side. If you would like to discuss possibilities to manage risk, please contact us.

Yesterdays data was a mixed bag, Nvidia could gain massively mainly on a strong outlook for AI; the stock gained 14% yesterday and boosted Tech sentiment, the US GDP came slightly lower and the initial Jobless claims confirmed a tight labor market.

The US 500 gained 0.5%, the Nasdaq 0.7 and the Dow 0.3%, the GER40 is back above the 15500.

The USD Index is little changed at 104.50 as the 2 year yield remains high at 4.7% EURUSD is trading at 1.06, GBPUSD 1.2020 and USDJPY at 134.60. Gold and Silver give up ground to trade at 1824 and 21.30

.The incoming Governor of the Bank of Japan spoke rather hawkishly confirming that while the BoJs Yield Curve Control may need review, he gave no sense of urgency.  Japanese Inflation remains high at 4.2%.

Today we are expecting the PCE Price Index expected at 0.4 monthly and 4.3% annually core. The PCE price index reflects changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers in the United States and is a key inflation measure for the Fed.

Trade safely.

 

 

Expiries

        Physically Settled Futures

EMAH3 will expire 24 Feb 2023

FLGH3 will expire 24 Feb 2023

TTFMH3 will expire 24 Feb 2023

HGH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023

KEH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023

RRH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023

SIH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023

SILH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023

TNH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023

UBH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023

XKH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023

XWH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023

Z3NH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023

ZBH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023

ZCH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023

ZFH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023

ZLH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023

ZMH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023

ZNH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023

ZOH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023

ZSH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023

ZTH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023

ZWH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023

HOH3 will expire 28 Feb 2023

LBH3 will expire 28 Feb 2023

LBH3 will expire 28 Feb 2023

RBH3 will expire 28 Feb 2023

SBH3 will expire 28 Feb 2023

 

Expiring CFDs

10YUSTNOTEMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023

30YUSTBONDMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023

COPPERUSMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023

CORNMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023

GASOLINEUSMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023

HEATINGOILMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023

SILVERMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023

SOYBEANMEALMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023

SOYBEANOILMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023

SOYBEANSMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023

SUGARNYMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023

WHEATMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023

CHINA50FEB23 will expire 27 Feb 2023

 

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
The Circle 38
CH-8058
Zürich-Flughafen
Switzerland

Contact Saxo

Select region

Switzerland
Switzerland

All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law.

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.