Thursday, 24 July

Roche: The Swiss drug giant reported 6% growth in group sales in Q1, driven by an 8% increase in pharmaceutical sales, though diagnostics was flat. The company stuck to its full-year guidance of mid-single-digit sales growth, despite a 5% negative impact from currency fluctuations. The key focus could be on Trump’s tariffs on pharmaceuticals, which he has threatened to introduce by 1 August. Roche said in the Q1 earnings call it was satisfied with mitigating tariffs, for example by shifting inventories. Investors will want further reassurances in the Q2 call – so far the stock has failed to recover much from its post Liberation Day lows.

Nestle: The world’s largest packaged foods group said the impact of US tariffs was "unclear" when it reported better-than-expected first-quarter organic sales growth. The firm, which at the same time hiked prices for its Kit-Kat chocolate bars and Nescafe coffee, maintained its 2025 outlook, expecting organic sales growth to improve operating profit margin of at least 16%. Investors will be searching for whether management can offer any fresh perspective on tariffs, and how it judges tailwinds from declining cocoa prices, which have halved since the start of the year.

Lloyds: Shares of the UK bank have risen about 40% so far this year and expectations are for continued growth in net interest income (NII), which rose 3% in Q1 to £3.29bn. Q1 saw net interest margins rise to 3.03% from 2.97%. Morgan Stanley forecasts this to tick up further to 3.06% and 2.1% QoQ growth in NII. About the same time as the results we are expecting a Supreme Court ruling on motor finance, which several analysts have said could be a positive catalyst for the stock and the broader bank sector in the UK.Investors will be happy to get clarity on this front as it could remove an overhang for the shares. Investors will also want to hear more about the £4bn investment plan to develop new revenue streams to make it less reliant on NII. Lloyds Q1 profits fell 7% to £1.5bn, in line with forecasts, due to increased provisions for bad loans and the expected impact of tariffs – look for signs that they are less worried than three months ago on those fronts.

Friday, 25 July

Volkswagen: Tariffs are key here as German automaker is at the centre of the EU-US spat over trade. Reporting Q1 numbers in April, VW posted a 37% decline in profit to €2.9bn, albeit revenues ticked up 2.8% as it enjoyed momentum in markets outside of China. Management guided expectations for operating return on sales, net cash flow and net liquidity at the lower end of annual forecasts. Deutsche Bank notes that deliveries in Q2 grew by 1% from last year, mainly driven by Europe and South America as North America was down by double-digits. A number of one-off factors will hit profits in Q2, while tariffs will “take their toll”, says DB.

NatWest: Like Lloyds, the outlook on NII seems positive, with Morgan Stanley reckoning on Q2 delivering ahead of management forecasts for income to be at the “upper end of our previously guided range of £15.2-15.7 billion” for the full year. Citi also suggested back in February that this guidance was “conservative”. Q1 was certainly on the positive side as pre-tax operating profits rose 36% from the year before to £1.8bn, ahead of the £1.6bn anticipated, despite a higher-than-expected provision for “economic uncertainty”, for which we might read “tariffs”. NIM had risen to 2.27% from 1.19% in the previous three months.