Morning Brew February 18 2026

Good morning

We saw some interesting swings yesterday, but ended the day basically where we started—at least in the indexes. Tech recovered, with Apple rebounding 3.6% off the lows, Nvidia up 2.2%, while Tesla lost 1.7% and Oracle lost more than 3%. This morning, the GER40 is back above 25k at 25,067, the US30 at 49,588, US500 at 6,857, and the Japan225 at 57,250.

Traders seem a bit uncertain whether to focus on AI disruption, the concentration risk in AI shares, the US rate outlook, geopolitics, or the holiday in China.

Our strats team is trying to shed some light on this question:

Ole: Metals update: Lunar New Year lull exposes reliance on Asian demand

Ruben: The AI stress-test for software stocks: a simple framework to spot disruption risk

John: The FX Trader: If JPY can’t rally strongly now, when can it?

Gold and silver are recovering off yesterday’s lows; gold is up 1.3% and silver up 3% at 4,935 and 75.70, respectively. US 10s found buyers at support, and the USD Index was fairly stable with EURUSD at 1.1835, GBPUSD at 1.3555, and USDJPY at 153.60.

There are speculations that Mme Lagarde will not finish her term as heads of the ECB acc to the Financial Times

Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said the Fed could approve "several more" interest-rate cuts this year if inflation approaches the  2% target. Michael Barr said that another central bank interest rate cut could come somewhere well down the road amid ongoing risks to the U.S. inflation outlook.

Mary Daly said the central bank must do a deep dive into the data to determine whether AI is lifting productivity growth and in turn, economic growth, without rekindling inflation that would force tighter monetary policy.

According to the Financial Times, there are rumors that Christine Lagarde may not complete her term as head of the European Central Bank.

Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said the Federal Reserve might make "several more" interest rate cuts this year if inflation moves closer to their 2% target. Michael Barr said that another rate cut could happen, but only after some time, as there are still ongoing concerns about inflation in the U.S.

Mary Daly said the Federal Reserve needs to thoroughly review the data to see if artificial intelligence is boosting productivity and economic growth, without causing inflation to rise again and forcing the Fed to tighten monetary policy.

 Focus will be on the US Durable Goods orders today as well as the Fed Minutes tonight even though I expect that with the change at the top of the Fed and the fact it is unlikely Jerome Powell will cut rates again, there will not be anything too significant-

Wednesday, Feb 18

Economic Events

• Japan Trade Balance
• UK: CPI inflation.
• US: Durable Goods Orders, Fed Minutes (Jan).
• China Markets closed

Earnings Releases

• SolarEdge, Garmin, Moody`s , Door dash, Royal gold, Equinox Gold, eBay

Speakers: Bowman

Thursday, Feb 19

Economic Events

• Italy/France/Germany: Flash PMIs (prelim).
• US Initial Jobless Claims
• China Markets closed

Earnings Releases

• Walmart, First Majestic Silver, John Deere, Klarna, Wayfair, Transocean, Newmont, Centerra Gold

Speaker:  Bostic, Bowman, Kashkari

Friday, Feb 20

Economic Events

• Japan CPI
• US: GDP Q4 final, PCE inflation (key).
• Germany/Eurozone/UK/US: Flash PMIs.
• UK: Retail sales.
• China Markets closed
•  

Earnings Releases

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