Market Quick Take – 2 April 2026

No Quick Take will be published on Friday and Monday
due to the long Easter weekend.

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: Stocks rallied across the U.S., Europe and Asia as easing Middle East tensions and lower oil prices revived risk appetite.
• Volatility: VIX elevated, oil and Iran risk, SPX 1.07% move
• Digital assets: BTC, ETH softer, macro-driven tone
• Currencies: Dollar firms again as risk sentiment softens and yields rise
• Commodities: Oil rebounds sharply as de-escalation hopes fade, gold pulls back on stronger dollar and yields.
• Fixed Income: Treasuries weaken as oil and inflation concerns outweigh safe-haven demand.
• Macro: Trump signals conflict could end within weeks but offers no clear de-escalation path, strong US data reinforces resilience but keeps inflation concerns elevated.

Macro headlines

• President Trump said military objectives in Iran were close to being met and repeated that the conflict could end in two to three weeks, but his address did not give markets a clear de-escalation path and instead revived fears of further strikes and a longer disruption around the Strait of Hormuz.
• The IEA warned that Middle East supply disruptions are set to hit Europe harder in April, with April losses expected to exceed March and with diesel and jet fuel stress becoming more visible.
• US ISM manufacturing rose to 52.7 in March, the strongest reading since August 2022, while the prices index climbed to a four-year high, reinforcing the message that growth is holding up but inflation pressure is not easing cleanly.
• US retail sales rose 0.6% in February, above consensus, and ADP said private payrolls increased by 62,000 in March, suggesting the US economy was still resilient heading into Friday’s payrolls report.
• In Europe, the macro backdrop remains fragile: euro area factories improved in March, but Reuters reported that supply snarls and input cost inflation jumped again, while ECB policymaker Primož Dolenc warned the economy may already be tracking the ECB’s adverse scenario.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

1230 – US weekly initial jobless claims
1230 – US February trade balance
1430 – US weekly natural gas storage
Friday 1230 – US March nonfarm payrolls / unemployment rate

Earnings events

• None

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: The S&P 500 rose 0.7% to 6,575.32, the Nasdaq climbed 1.2% to 21,840.95, and the Dow added 0.5% to 46,565.74, as investors welcomed signs that the Middle East conflict may be de-escalating and oil prices moved lower. Intel jumped 8.8% after agreeing to buy back Apollo’s 49% stake in its Ireland chip plant, while Eli Lilly gained 3.8% after securing US approval for a new weight-loss treatment. Alphabet rose 3.4% as large-cap tech led the rebound, while Nike fell 15.5% after warning on sales. Focus now shifts to Friday’s payrolls report.
• Europe: The STOXX 600 climbed 2.5% to 597.69, the DAX gained 2.7% to 23,298.89, and the FTSE 100 rose 1.9% to 10,364.79, as hopes of a near-term easing in the Middle East conflict pushed oil prices lower and sparked a broad relief rally. ASML rose 6.1% and provided the biggest lift to the STOXX 600, while HSBC added 5.3% to lead gains in London. Babcock advanced 9.5% after a UK defence contract extension, and Rheinmetall gained 9.5% as defence shares remained firm even as airlines benefited from cheaper oil. Investors will now watch whether calmer energy markets can hold.
• Asia: Asian equities also rallied in the latest full session, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 rising 4.5% to 53,352.96, South Korea’s Kospi surging 8.1% to 5,461.51, and Australia’s ASX 200 gaining 2.2% to 8,671.80, as lower oil prices and hopes of de-escalation drove a strong rebound in risk assets. Samsung Electronics jumped 13.0% and SK Hynix climbed around 11.0% as chipmakers bounced sharply after the prior sell-off. In Australia, BHP rose 4.3% and Rio Tinto added 3.5% as miners recovered alongside broader sentiment. The next question is whether the rebound can extend into the next session.

Volatility

• Volatility cooled on Wednesday, but the market was not calm. The VIX closed at 24.54 on 1 April, down from last week’s spike above 31, yet still well above its longer-run norm, which tells you investors were less panicked but not relaxed. The bigger issue for today was macro: President Trump’s latest Iran comments reduced hopes of a quick off-ramp, Brent crude pushed back above $107, and the IEA warned that Middle East supply disruptions are set to hit Europe more directly in April. For investors, that keeps the same question in focus: whether another oil shock lifts inflation again just as growth is already under pressure.
• SPX expected move: Based on the attached SPX options data, the market is implying roughly a 70.6-point move for today, or about 1.07%. From the start of the week, options had priced roughly a 180.4-point move into today’s expiry, or about 2.83%.
• Today’s skew indicator: Based on the attached 0DTE chain, near-the-money calls were priced on slightly higher implied volatility than puts around the 6,575–6,580 area, which points to a mild upside skew into today’s close rather than strong demand for fresh downside protection.

Digital Assets

• Digital assets were softer again this morning, with Bitcoin around $66.6k and Ethereum near $2.05k, continuing to trade in line with broader risk sentiment rather than acting as a safe haven. The macro backdrop remains the key driver, with geopolitical uncertainty and oil prices influencing flows across asset classes.
• Beneath the surface, ETF activity appears relatively stable: IBIT traded around $38.64 and ETHA near $16.16, suggesting institutional exposure remains intact despite recent price pressure. Outside the majors, the tone remains mixed, with Solana, XRP, and other altcoins drifting lower, reinforcing a selective and macro-driven market rather than a broad risk-on move.

Commodities

• Oil reversed hard higher after Trump’s address disappointed hopes for a near-term end to the war. Brent rose about 6.3% to $107.49 and WTI about 5.3% to $105.40, as traders refocused on supply risk, tanker insecurity, and the absence of any clear reopening path for the Strait of Hormuz.
• Gold did not behave like a straightforward geopolitical winner this morning. Spot gold fell around 2% to $4,664 as the stronger dollar and higher Treasury yields outweighed the safe-haven bid, while silver, platinum, and palladium also moved lower.

Fixed Income

• US Treasuries lost ground again after the combination of firmer US data and renewed oil strength pushed inflation concerns back to the front. The earlier bond rally tied to de-escalation hopes faded, and Reuters noted that yields rose as markets reassessed the risk that a prolonged energy shock keeps the Fed cautious for longer.
• The short read is that bonds are no longer getting a clean safe-haven lift from the conflict. Mechanically, oil is acting as the dominant transmission channel: if crude stays elevated, the inflation impulse matters more than the growth scare. Inference: that leaves duration vulnerable unless the incoming labour data soften materially. What would change my mind? A clear drop in oil plus a materially weaker payrolls print.

Currencies

• The US dollar strengthened after two softer sessions, supported by higher Treasury yields and renewed uncertainty around the Middle East outlook. EURUSD and GBPUSD edged lower, while USDJPY stabilised near recent highs as rate differentials remained the dominant driver. Earlier expectations of a weaker dollar tied to de-escalation have faded, with FX markets now reflecting a more cautious tone. The near-term direction will likely hinge on Friday’s US payrolls data and any further developments on energy markets.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.