Quarterly Outlook
Q3 Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
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Morning Brew August 19 2025
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Running out of steam?
Good Morning
Yields rose higher yesterday, and in the absence of any major input, risk sentiment was weighed down. The rate expectation has shifted to an 85% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September, with the year-end rate now looking at 50 basis points cuts rather than the 60 basis points expected last week.
The 10-Year Yields rose to 4.33%, and the 30-Year Yields to 4.93%. The USD Index gained to 98.12, EUR/USD is at 1.1655, GBP/USD at 1.35, and USD/JPY at 147.70. Gold is at 3335, and Silver at 37.90. Bitcoin and Ethereum are at 115000 and 4230, respectively.
The summit between Ukraine, Europe, and the US went better than feared but worse than hoped. There was no scandal, and DJT and Zelinsky seemed to get along. Three-way negotiations are being held, and Trump mentioned he is looking for a tangible solution in the next two weeks.
There is little on the agenda today that is expected to significantly move markets unless there is a massive surprise from the Home Depot earnings.
Traders seem uncertain if there is enough positive sentiment to take risks to the next big levels and are taking a breath. This is not necessarily bad if we can gain traction again – let us see.
Other Headlines:
- A truce in Gaza is looking likely.
- The UK waives the backdoor requirement from Apple.
- Intel is receiving a 10 billion capital injection from Softbank, and discussions of a US Government stake are underway.
- S&P affirms the US 'AA+' credit rating.
- The next significant event is likely to be the US Rate outlook with the FOMC Minutes tomorrow. On Thursday, the Jackson Hole Summit kicks off, and any comments and statements will be closely followed.
Trade safely.
Tuesday August 19
- US Housing starts
- Canada CPI
Earnigns: Home Depot, Toll Brothers,
Wednesday August 20
- Japan Machine Orders, Trade Balance
- China Rate dicision
- UK CPI,
- EU HICP
- Fed Meeting Minutes
Earnigns: Target, BBVA
Thursday August 21
- Global PMI
- US Initial Jobless Claims
- EU Consumer confidence
Earnigns:Walmart Zoom Workday Intuit
Friday 22 August 22
- Germany GDP
- UK Retail Sales
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