Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew August 19 2025

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Running out of steam?


Good Morning

Yields rose higher yesterday, and in the absence of any major input, risk sentiment was weighed down. The rate expectation has shifted to an 85% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September, with the year-end rate now looking at 50 basis points cuts rather than the 60 basis points expected last week.

The 10-Year Yields rose to 4.33%, and the 30-Year Yields to 4.93%. The USD Index gained to 98.12, EUR/USD is at 1.1655, GBP/USD at 1.35, and USD/JPY at 147.70. Gold is at 3335, and Silver at 37.90. Bitcoin and Ethereum are at 115000 and 4230, respectively.

The summit between Ukraine, Europe, and the US went better than feared but worse than hoped. There was no scandal, and DJT and Zelinsky seemed to get along. Three-way negotiations are being held, and Trump mentioned he is looking for a tangible solution in the next two weeks.

There is little on the agenda today that is expected to significantly move markets unless there is a massive surprise from the Home Depot earnings.

Traders seem uncertain if there is enough positive sentiment to take risks to the next big levels and are taking a breath. This is not necessarily bad if we can gain traction again – let us see.

Other Headlines:

  • A truce in Gaza is looking likely.
  • The UK waives the backdoor requirement from Apple.
  • Intel is receiving a 10 billion capital injection from Softbank, and discussions of a US Government stake are underway.
  • S&P affirms the US 'AA+' credit rating.
  • The next significant event is likely to be the US Rate outlook with the FOMC Minutes tomorrow. On Thursday, the Jackson Hole Summit kicks off, and any comments and statements will be closely followed.

Trade safely.

Tuesday August 19

  • US Housing starts
  • Canada CPI

    Earnigns: Home Depot, Toll Brothers,

    Wednesday August 20

  • Japan Machine Orders, Trade Balance
  • China Rate dicision
  • UK CPI,
  • EU HICP
  • Fed Meeting Minutes

    Earnigns: Target, BBVA

    Thursday August 21

  • Global PMI
  • US Initial Jobless Claims
  • EU Consumer confidence

    Earnigns:Walmart Zoom Workday Intuit

    Friday 22 August 22

  • Germany GDP
  • UK Retail Sales

Outrageous Predictions 2026

01 /

  • Switzerland's Green Revolution: CHF 30 Billion Initiative by 2050

    Outrageous Predictions

    Switzerland's Green Revolution: CHF 30 Billion Initiative by 2050

    Katrin Wagner

    Head of Investment Content Switzerland

    Switzerland launches a CHF 30 billion energy revolution by 2050, rivaling Lindt & Sprüngli's market ...
  • The Swiss Fortress – 2026

    Outrageous Predictions

    The Swiss Fortress – 2026

    Erik Schafhauser

    Senior Relationship Manager

    Swiss voters reject EU ties, boosting the Swiss Franc and sparking Switzerland's "Souveränität Zuers...
  • A Fortune 500 company names an AI model as CEO

    Outrageous Predictions

    A Fortune 500 company names an AI model as CEO

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Can AI be trusted to take over in the boardroom? With the right algorithms and balanced human oversi...
  • Executive Summary: Outrageous Predictions 2026

    Outrageous Predictions

    Executive Summary: Outrageous Predictions 2026

    Saxo Group

    Read Saxo's Outrageous Predictions for 2026, our latest batch of low probability, but high impact ev...
  • Dollar dominance challenged by Beijing’s golden yuan

    Outrageous Predictions

    Dollar dominance challenged by Beijing’s golden yuan

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Beijing does an end-run around the US dollar, setting up a framework for settling trade in a neutral...
  • Dumb AI triggers trillion-dollar clean-up

    Outrageous Predictions

    Dumb AI triggers trillion-dollar clean-up

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

    Agentic AI systems are deployed across all sectors, and after a solid start, mistakes trigger a tril...
  • Quantum leap Q-Day arrives early, crashing crypto and destabilizing world finance

    Outrageous Predictions

    Quantum leap Q-Day arrives early, crashing crypto and destabilizing world finance

    Neil Wilson

    Investor Content Strategist

    A quantum computer cracks today’s digital security, bringing enough chaos with it that Bitcoin crash...
  • SpaceX announces an IPO, supercharging extraterrestrial markets

    Outrageous Predictions

    SpaceX announces an IPO, supercharging extraterrestrial markets

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    Financial markets go into orbit, to the moon and beyond as SpaceX expands rocket launches by orders-...
  • Taylor Swift-Kelce wedding spikes global growth

    Outrageous Predictions

    Taylor Swift-Kelce wedding spikes global growth

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    Next year’s most anticipated wedding inspires Gen Z to drop the doomscrolling and dial up the real w...
  • Despite concerns, U.S. 2026 mid-term elections proceed smoothly

    Outrageous Predictions

    Despite concerns, U.S. 2026 mid-term elections proceed smoothly

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    In spite of outstanding threats to the American democratic process, the US midterms come and go cord...

This content is marketing material.

None of the information provided on this website constitutes an offer, solicitation, or endorsement to buy or sell any financial instrument, nor is it financial, investment, or trading advice. Saxo Bank Switzerland and its entities within the Saxo Bank Group provide execution-only services, with all trades and investments based on self-directed decisions. Analysis, research, and educational content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice nor a recommendation.

Saxo Bank Switzerland’s content may reflect the personal views of the author, which are subject to change without notice. Mentions of specific financial products are for illustrative purposes only and may serve to clarify financial literacy topics. Content classified as investment research is marketing material and does not meet legal requirements for independent research.

Saxo Bank Switzerland partners with companies that provide compensation for promotional activities conduced on its platform. Additionally, Saxo Bank Switzerland has agreements with certain partners who provide retrocession contingent upon clients purchasing specific products offered by these partners.

While Saxo Bank Switzerland receives compensation from these partnerships, all educational and research content remains focused on providing information to clients.  

Before making any investment decisions, you should assess your own financial situation, needs, and objectives, and consider seeking independent professional advice. Saxo Bank Switzerland does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information provided and assumes no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages resulting from the use of this information.

The content of this website represents marketing material and is not the result of financial analysis or research. It has therefore not been prepared in accordance with directives of the Swiss Bankers Association designed to promote the independence of financial research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of the marketing material.

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
The Circle 38
CH-8058
Zürich-Flughafen
Switzerland

Contact Saxo

Switzerland
Switzerland

All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law. 

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.