Morning Brew April 28 2026

Good morning,

Yesterday was a slow start to a busy week: Only 15,6 billion shares were traded on US Exchanges, well below the average and Indexes were calm with moves of less  than 0.3% for the big three.

Most noteworthy was Nvidia which gained another 4% to reclaim the 5 trillion market capitalization.

The GER40 is stable at 14070 while Gold and Silver are easing  on  stalled U.S.-Iran peace talks and on the interest rate outlook of key central banks,. Gold is down 1 and Silver 3% this morning at 4630 and 73.25 U.S. President Donald Trump is unhappy with the latest Iranian proposal on resolving the two-month war, a U.S. official told Reuters.

The Bank of Japan was the first of the big 5 central banks to set rates this week and left them at 0.75% as expected but three of its nine-member board proposed hiking so this was a hawkish hold with a June hike likely as Charu comments:

BOJ’s hawkish hold: When inflation risk beats growth fear

• BOJ’s hold was hawkish beneath the surface: The 6–3 vote split shows more policymakers are leaning toward rate hikes as imported inflation risks rise from higher energy costs and Middle East tensions.
• The hawkish bias is spreading globally: Markets are pricing renewed tightening risk across several central banks, with the RBA, BOJ, ECB, BoE and RBNZ all showing meaningful hike pricing. The Fed remains the main outlier.
• This could be a tougher setup for equities and short-end bonds: If inflation arrives before growth weakness becomes obvious, central banks may stay restrictive for longer. That could keep short-end yields elevated and pressure equity valuations, especially in long-duration growth and margin-sensitive sectors. 

The expected rate hikes Charu mentions are not expected in this week`s meetings but later in the year.

The USD Index is slightly above yesterday`s level at 98.56, EURUSDis 1.1710, GBPUSD 1.3515 and USDJPY 15915.

Today is a relatively uneventful day from here, focus will be on the upcoming central bank decisions and the big 5 tech companies reporting the next 2 days. From a swiss perspective, the earnings of Novartis today and UBS tomorrow will be closely watched.

The middle east remains in focus but seems the current stalemate seems to be the new normal for now. Allies seem to be attempting to put pressure on the US administration for a speedy resolution but so far with little progress.

For a great summary or the importance of this week, enjoy our podcast:

Today, a look at the continued incredible ramp in semiconductor names and whether we are inflating an incipient bubble, even if forward valuations in many case look quite reasonable. Elsewhere, we note the lack of progress in opening the Hormuz Strait and the implications that continue to multiply with every day and week that crude oil and refined products aren't reaching the global market. Meanwhile, we have peak earnings season and five central banks meeting this week

Trade safely.

Tuesday, April 28, 2026

Japan unemployment, Hungary and Japan rate decisions, plus U.S. consumer confidence.

Earnings: Novartis, UPS, Coca-Cola, Spotify, GM, Robinhood, Visa.

Wednesday, April 29, 2026

Australia CPI, Germany CPI, U.S. durable goods, Canada and U.S. rate decisions.

Earnings: UBS, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, Ford, Qualcomm.

Thursday, April 30, 2026

Japan industrial production, China PMI, Swiss KOF, Germany GDP, EU inflation, U.S. PCE, ECB and Bank of England rate decisions, U.S. GDP.

Earnings: Caterpillar, Eli Lilly, Mastercard, Apple, Reddit.

Friday, May 1, 2026

Labor Day in the U.S. and PMI data.

Earnings: Chevron, Exxon, Moderna, Linde.

Monday, May 4, 2026

Global PMI