Morning Brew April 25 2022
Senior Relationship Manager
Risk off sentiment is driving markets after a terrible end of the week in which all 3 US indexes fell more than 2%. This morning it looks like the selloff is set to continue withteh GER40 below 14000. The S&P500 at 4230 the Dow at 33500 and the Nasdaq 100 at 13260, all based on the futures. The Euro could initially gain on the news that Emmanuel Macron beat Le Pen with a wide margin but gave up the gains over night.
EURUSD is trading at 1.0770, GBPUSD at 1.2800, the Japanese Yen remains high at 128.50, and the USD Index to 101.35, Gold and Silver fall to 1915 and 23.70 respectively and Bitcoin below 40k at trade at 39000. Oil is down 3%. EU bonds are little changed with the Bund Future trading at 153.50
Driver is a combination of rate hike fears in the US and now even the EU, where the market has now priced in around 85 basis points of hikes for this year, continued lockdowns in China, and overall growth fears.
The EU planning the 6th round of sanctions against Russia and the US are planning more weapons deliveries.
The takeover of Twitter by Elon Musk remains in the headlines, Hyunday reported a first quarter profit increase of almost 20%. Credit Suisse is rumored to pan a next restructuring as it threatens to fall out of the SMI Index.
The week will be driven by earnings data, with key companies reporting. Today Coca Cola is the largest, tomorrow Microsoft, Alphabet, GE, VISA and 3M will come out.
Technicals by Kim Cramer: : Nasdaq and S&P 500 have resumed their bear trend. Like to test March lows in a few days . RSI below 40
S&P 500 strong key support 4,164 likely to be tested coming week. 3,815 likely level to be seen before summer. Possibly 3,500 !
Dow Jones closed well below 34,102 key support. March lows around 32,578 likely to be tested within next 5-8 trading days.
Semiconductors already taken out March lows
Nikkei . Look out for key support test at 26,239.
ASX 200 rejected a few points below all time high. Likely to test support 7,356
DAX Key support 13,989 ! likely to close below Monday . If so March lows are targets.
Today the only significant economic data is the German IFO at 10:00 CET.
Remain cautions today and trade safely.
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.