Morning Brew April 22 2026

Good morning,

After growing concerns that the situation in the Middle East would deteriorate further, Donald Trump announced he would indefinitely extend the Iran ceasefire, stabilizing markets again.

The three major U.S. indexes lost 0.6% yesterday. The USD gained, precious metals dropped sharply, while oil moved higher. Silver traded as low as 75.40 after reaching a high of 80.25; it is now trading around 78. This is why I emphasize trading these markets carefully with a clear strategy. If you rely on impulses alone, you are likely to overtrade and lose.

Gold is trading at 4,755 after a low of 4,669. The GER40 moved in a range of nearly 500 points and is now trading around 24,200.

Hong Kong markets finished in the green, with Nvidia supplier Victory Giant surging 50% on its trading debut following the city’s largest IPO of the year.

Yields are stable, with the U.S. at 4.3% and the EU at 3.0%. The hearing of Kevin Wash had little impact.

J.P. Morgan raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 index to 7,600.
Apple fell 2% on news of Tim Cook’s resignation, Amazon gained 1.3%, and Oracle rose more tha three. Ruben took a look at the Apple Story. Apple: an era ends, but what comes next?

He also published an article on the cashflow of AI.  From chatbots to chip racks: where AI profits may actually end up :  ASML and TSMC suggest the AI build-out is still very much alive, and scarce capacity still holds pricing power.Nvidia still matters, but custom chips and long contracts are making the “picks and shovels” trade more specialised.

The EU is considering measures to address the energy shortage. Draft proposals seen by Reuters indicate that, for now, the EU will avoid major market interventions such as capping gas prices or taxing energy companies’ windfall profits—measures it used in 2022 when Russia cut gas supplies and prices hit record highs.

The German Minister of Defense will outline his strategy for the German military going forward. This will be closely watched by defense investors.

Yesterday, U.S. retail sales jumped 1.7% last month, the largest increase since March 2025, following an upwardly revised 0.7% gain in February and beating the 1.4% estimate.

Trump’s nominee to lead the Federal Reserve, Kevin Walsh, said he had made no promises to President Donald Trump about cutting interest rates, as he sought to reassure the U.S. public that he would act independently of the White House. He also said there is a short window to bring inflation down, that the Fed’s balance sheet should be smaller and avoid long-term Treasuries, and that his disagreements with Powell are purely policy-related.

The key event of the day might, for once, not be Iran. Tesla is reporting earnings after the bell as the first of the “Magnificent 7.” Tesla is expected to report Q1 2026 EPS of around $0.30 to $0.36. Polymarket is pricing only an 18% chance that Tesla beats quarterly earnings, meaning a positive surprise could have a strong impact.

Any significant news from Iran could, of course, outweigh everything else, but with the ceasefire extended, the clearest risk has been mitigated. It appears the U.S. is very keen to end its engagement without losing face—which is not an easy feat from here.

Trade safely as always.

Wednesday, April 22, 2026

Data: U.K. CPI, EU Consumer Confidence
Earnings: Boeing, CME, Tesla, IBM, Texas Instruments

Thursday, April 23, 2026

Data: Global PMI, U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
Earnings: Nokia, Blackstone, Dow, American Airlines, American Express, Intel, Newmont

Friday, April 24, 2026

Data: U.K. Retail Sales, Japan CPI, Germany Ifo Business Climate, U.S. University of Michigan
Earnings: P&G

Monday, April 27, 2026

Data: Japan Leading Index