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Morning Brew April 15 2026
Summary: The IMF cuts its growth forecast, Fund managers are cautious, but markets test all time highs
Good morning
The IMF cuts its growth forecast, Fund managers are cautious, but markets test all time highs
Talks to end the Iran war could resume in Pakistan over the next two days, U.S. President Donald Trump told the New York Post on Tuesday, after the collapse of weekend negotiations prompted Washington to impose a blockade on Iranian ports.
Meanwhile, the U.S. State Department said Israel and Lebanon had agreed to launch direct negotiations at a mutually agreed-upon time and place after a U.S.-hosted meeting in Washington on Tuesday, although it was not immediately clear if they agreed to a framework for peace.
Oil fell below $90 in the U.S briefly, currently at $91 – 30% off the high.
The S&P 500 rallied 1.2% to 6,967.38, nearing a fresh record high as optimism over possible U.S.-Iran peace talks pushed oil prices lower. The Nasdaq 100 gained 1.8%, marking its tenth straight day of gains—the longest winning streak since 2020. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.7%. Meta and Broadcom shares climbed in extended trading following news of an expanded multi-year partnership. Amazon announced a $12 billion investment into a Starlink competitor. Shares of Globalstar jumped 9.6% after Amazon.com agreed to buy the satellite company. Citigroup shares rallied after the bank reported a big first-quarter earnings beat, boosted by record M&A fees. Blackrock rose 3%.
Apple was the outlier at -0.2%. Microsoft rose more than 2%, while the other Magnificent 7 stocks ended extended trading more than 3% higher.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 1% to 619.95, advancing to the highest closing level since March 2. ASML contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.9%, while Intertek Group had the largest increase, rising 12.8%. The DAX rose 1.3% to 24,044.22 in Frankfurt, with Deutsche Bank posting the largest increase at 3.8%. The CAC 40 Index gained 1.12% to 8,327.86.
Asian stocks tracked Wall Street higher on Wednesday.
Ten-year yields are lower, with Europe at 3.03% and the U.S. at 4.24%. The USD Index falls to the 97 level, EURUSD is testing 1.18, GBPUSD is at 1.3566, and USDJPY is at 158.98.
Gold rose above 4,800, currently at 4,824, and silver is testing 80. Bitcoin is trading above 74,000.
Ole comments. Precious metals rebuild as macro tailwinds return, but gold awaits breakout confirmation
- Silver rebounds sharply, supported by both macro easing and improved industrial sentiment.
- Lean hedge fund positioning leaves room for renewed buying once the technical and/or fundamental backdrop strengthens.
- Lower yields, a softer dollar, and rate cut expectations are rebuilding support, allowing investors to return their attention to long-held underlying drivers.
The IMF cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1% from 3.3%.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. economy remains strong and expects growth could exceed 3% to 3.5%.
Iran used a Chinese spy satellite to target U.S. bases, FT reports.
BofA Fund Manager April survey: Is bearish positioning a bullish signal?
- The latest BofA Fund Manager Survey shows a sharp downgrade in growth expectations and a clear rise in inflation worries, but the base case is still a soft landing rather than a recession.
- Positioning has turned more defensive , yet not defensive enough to suggest panic. Equity exposure has been cut, cash has risen, and regional leadership is shifting, but investors have not fully abandoned risk.
- Geopolitics remains the dominant tail risk , and the market is treating oil as the main transmission channel into inflation, yields, and sentiment.
- The key point is that expectations are cooling faster than fundamentals are collapsing . That signals caution, not capitulation. In our view, that can create a more balanced setup if the pressure points begin to ease.
As is true for the rest of the week, news from the Middle East will make or break sentiment. However, a new all-time high closing level in the S&P would be a strong technical signal—even though it seems rather strange when considering the news backdrop. The 200-day lines also remain in play.
Keep your risk management strategies active and don’t become too complacent. So far, the old saying “time in the market beats timing the market” has proven itself again.
- Wednesday, April 15, 2026
- Data: Japan Tankan, France CPI, U.S. Import Price,
- Earnings: ASML, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America,
- Thursday, April 16, 2026
- Data: China GDP, Retail Sales, UK GDP, Italy CPI, U.S. Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed, Industrial Production,
- Earnings: TSMC, Charles Schwab, PepsiCo, BNY, Netflix, Alcoa,
- Friday, April 17, 2026
- Data: EU Trade Balance, Canada Housing Starts
- Monday, April 20, 2026
- Data: China Interest Rate, Canada CPI,
- Earnings: Ericsson, State Street,
Good morning
The IMF cuts its growth forecast, Fund managers are cautious, but markets soar extraordinarily.
Talks to end the Iran war could resume in Pakistan over the next two days, U.S. President Donald Trump told the New York Post on Tuesday, after the collapse of weekend negotiations prompted Washington to impose a blockade on Iranian ports.
Meanwhile, the U.S. State Department said Israel and Lebanon had agreed to launch direct negotiations at a mutually agreed-upon time and place after a U.S.-hosted meeting in Washington on Tuesday, although it was not immediately clear if they agreed to a framework for peace.
Oil fell below $90 in the U.S briefly, currently at $91 – 30% off the high.
The S&P 500 rallied 1.2% to 6,967.38, nearing a fresh record high as optimism over possible U.S.-Iran peace talks pushed oil prices lower. The Nasdaq 100 gained 1.8%, marking its tenth straight day of gains—the longest winning streak since 2020. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.7%. Meta and Broadcom shares climbed in extended trading following news of an expanded multi-year partnership. Amazon announced a $12 billion investment into a Starlink competitor. Shares of Globalstar jumped 9.6% after Amazon.com agreed to buy the satellite company. Citigroup shares rallied after the bank reported a big first-quarter earnings beat, boosted by record M&A fees. Blackrock rose 3%.
Apple was the outlier at -0.2%. Microsoft rose more than 2%, while the other Magnificent 7 stocks ended extended trading more than 3% higher.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 1% to 619.95, advancing to the highest closing level since March 2. ASML contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.9%, while Intertek Group had the largest increase, rising 12.8%. The DAX rose 1.3% to 24,044.22 in Frankfurt, with Deutsche Bank posting the largest increase at 3.8%. The CAC 40 Index gained 1.12% to 8,327.86.
Asian stocks tracked Wall Street higher on Wednesday.
Ten-year yields are lower, with Europe at 3.03% and the U.S. at 4.24%. The USD Index falls to the 97 level, EURUSD is testing 1.18, GBPUSD is at 1.3566, and USDJPY is at 158.98.
Gold rose above 4,800, currently at 4,824, and silver is testing 80. Bitcoin is trading above 74,000.
Ole comments. Precious metals rebuild as macro tailwinds return, but gold awaits breakout confirmation
- Silver rebounds sharply, supported by both macro easing and improved industrial sentiment.
- Lean hedge fund positioning leaves room for renewed buying once the technical and/or fundamental backdrop strengthens.
- Lower yields, a softer dollar, and rate cut expectations are rebuilding support, allowing investors to return their attention to long-held underlying drivers.
The IMF cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1% from 3.3%.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. economy remains strong and expects growth could exceed 3% to 3.5%.
Iran used a Chinese spy satellite to target U.S. bases, FT reports.
BofA Fund Manager April survey: Is bearish positioning a bullish signal?
- The latest BofA Fund Manager Survey shows a sharp downgrade in growth expectations and a clear rise in inflation worries, but the base case is still a soft landing rather than a recession.
- Positioning has turned more defensive , yet not defensive enough to suggest panic. Equity exposure has been cut, cash has risen, and regional leadership is shifting, but investors have not fully abandoned risk.
- Geopolitics remains the dominant tail risk , and the market is treating oil as the main transmission channel into inflation, yields, and sentiment.
- The key point is that expectations are cooling faster than fundamentals are collapsing . That signals caution, not capitulation. In our view, that can create a more balanced setup if the pressure points begin to ease.
As is true for the rest of the week, news from the Middle East will make or break sentiment. However, a new all-time high closing level in the S&P would be a strong technical signal—even though it seems rather strange when considering the news backdrop. The 200-day lines also remain in play.
Keep your risk management strategies active and don’t become too complacent. So far, the old saying “time in the market beats timing the market” has proven itself again.
- Wednesday, April 15, 2026
- Data: Japan Tankan, France CPI, U.S. Import Price,
- Earnings: ASML, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America,
- Thursday, April 16, 2026
- Data: China GDP, Retail Sales, UK GDP, Italy CPI, U.S. Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed, Industrial Production,
- Earnings: TSMC, Charles Schwab, PepsiCo, BNY, Netflix, Alcoa,
- Friday, April 17, 2026
- Data: EU Trade Balance, Canada Housing Starts
- Monday, April 20, 2026
- Data: China Interest Rate, Canada CPI,
- Earnings: Ericsson, State Street,