Morning Brew April 1 2022
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: So far 2022 has been full of surprises we`ll see what Q2 brings
Welcome to April and the second quarter of 2022.
Historically, April is a good months for Equities, since 2006 the S&P gained in April 15 of o 16 times before the classic “sell in May” and go away” kicks in.
Markets lost confidence yesterday as negotiations between the G7 and Russia on the delivery terms for energy products – as of now it looks like Europe may have to go without for a while. Indexes lost app 1.5% yesterday, the USD Index rose to above 98 again and is currently at 98,47 as EURUSD lost sharply to 1.1050 on news Putin ordered the acceptance of Ruble only. Gold and Silver rose to currently 1937 and 24.80, Gold needs to break the 1950 for further potential.
Oil fell on a huge US release of strategic reserves and Bitcoin fell below 45k on regulatory fears.
Negations between Ukraine and Russia are set to continue today and will be closely monitored along with the Non Farm payroll at 14:30 today. Expectation for the nonfarm Payroll is 490k and a jobless rate of 3,7%. A “better” number would be worrisome as it would indicate higher wage inflation.
The Chinese PMI came at a disappointing 48.1 and Ford as well as GM are forced to halt production next week on lack of parts.
According to Reuters, an options trade by a JPM Fund added weight to risk sentiment with a sale of about 44,000 June calls and the purchase of an identical number of June put spreads, that would break even if the S&P 500 fell more than 5% .
Today we are expecting a huge amount of economic data; The Swiss CPI at 8:30, International PMI
9:00 France and Turkey
10: 00 EU and Greece
EU HICP at 11 an the US ISM Prices paid at 16:00 CET.
We are up for an interesting month, stay on your toes.
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.