Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew July 30 2021

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  What the Fed


Good Morning

Jackson Hole is over and Powell remained dovish as anticipated. The curious occurrence was that just before the beginning of Powell’s speech, Mester and Kaplan came on the wires with rather hawkish tones stating the time for tapering was now and that the bond purchases should be reduced to zero in eight months. This spooked traders somewhat, but markets recovered once Powell confirmed his dovish tones basically stating the economy was on  track and that the start of tapering could turn out to be appropriate this year still. The comments just before Powell hint at dissonance within the FED.

The S&P 500 reached new records and closed up 0.88% and 1.23%, the Dow gained 0.69%.

Stocks to watch were workday and Nvidia gaining 9 and 2.6% respectively. Workday had good results and Nvidia is seeking EU approval to take over ARM.

Curious was news on the IPO plan for Rivian Automotive which is seeking USD 80 bio in valuation which caused Elon Musk to comment on the outlandish expectation, he suggested he company should sell at least one car for every billion in valuation sought.

In FX the USD strengthened on Friday after the comments by Bullard and Mester, then fell against most currencies. The USD Index rose to 93.18 before dropping to 92.60, now 92.62. the 50d moving average is current support at 92.55. EURUSD fell to 1.1733 before rising to above 1.18, currently 1.1800. Gold and Silver broke initial resistance at 1810 and 24. It will be intersting if we take the next levels as well. EURUSD : 1.1810 then 1.1845 Gold : 1835 and Silver 24,00 then 24.50. US 10 Year Yields fell to near 1.3%.

Today is a UK Holiday, key events this week will be German and EU inflation, international PMI data and most important the US Nonfarm Payroll on Friday. A higher than feared German and European inflation will increase Pressure from the Bundesbank on the ECB to act as inflation fears are extremely high in Germany and the current only mandate of the ECB is price stability, the ECB cannot justify the job market as second metrics like the fed can.

Trade safely.

Local Start Date

Local Time

Country/Region

Indicator Name

Period

Reuters Poll

30 Aug 2021

09:00

Switzerland

KOF Indicator

Aug

125.0

30 Aug 2021

11:00

Euro Zone

Consumer Confid. Final

Aug

-5.3

30 Aug 2021

13:00

Brazil

IGP-M Inflation Index

Aug

0.91%

30 Aug 2021

14:00

Germany

CPI Prelim YY

Aug

3.9%

30 Aug 2021

14:00

Germany

HICP Prelim YY

Aug

3.4%

31 Aug 2021

01:30

Japan

Jobs/Applicants Ratio

Jul

1.12

31 Aug 2021

01:30

Japan

Unemployment Rate

Jul

2.9%

31 Aug 2021

01:50

Japan

Industrial O/P Prelim MM SA

Jul

-2.5%

31 Aug 2021

03:00

China (Mainland)

NBS Manufacturing PMI

Aug

50.2

31 Aug 2021

03:30

Australia

Building Approvals

Jul

-5.0%

31 Aug 2021

03:30

Australia

Current Account Balance SA

Q2

21.0B

31 Aug 2021

03:30

Australia

Net Exports Contribution

Q2

-1.0%

31 Aug 2021

08:00

Denmark

GDP QQ Prelim

Q2

31 Aug 2021

08:00

Denmark

GDP YY Prelim

Q2

31 Aug 2021

08:00

Denmark

Unemployment Rate

Jul

31 Aug 2021

08:45

France

GDP QQ Final

Q2

0.9%

31 Aug 2021

08:45

France

CPI (EU Norm) Prelim YY

Aug

2.1%

31 Aug 2021

09:00

Switzerland

Official Reserves Assets CHF

Jul

31 Aug 2021

09:55

Germany

Unemployment Chg SA

Aug

-34k

31 Aug 2021

09:55

Germany

Unemployment Rate SA

Aug

5.6%

31 Aug 2021

10:00

Italy

GDP Final QQ

Q2

2.7%

31 Aug 2021

10:00

Italy

GDP Final YY

Q2

17.3%

31 Aug 2021

11:00

Italy

CPI (EU Norm) Prelim MM

Aug

-0.2%

31 Aug 2021

11:00

Italy

CPI (EU Norm) Prelim YY

Aug

2.0%

31 Aug 2021

11:00

Euro Zone

HICP Flash YY

Aug

2.8%

31 Aug 2021

11:00

Euro Zone

HICP-X F&E Flash YY

Aug

1.4%

31 Aug 2021

14:30

Canada

GDP QQ Annualized

Q2

2.5%

31 Aug 2021

14:30

Canada

GDP MM

Jun

0.7%

31 Aug 2021

16:00

United States

Consumer Confidence

Aug

124.0

1 Sep 2021

02:30

Japan

Jibun Bank Mfg PMI

Aug

1 Sep 2021

02:30

South Korea

IHS Markit Mfg PMI

Aug

1 Sep 2021

03:30

Australia

Real GDP QQ SA

Q2

0.5%

1 Sep 2021

03:30

Australia

Real GDP YY SA

Q2

9.2%

1 Sep 2021

03:45

China (Mainland)

Caixin Mfg PMI Final

Aug

50.2

1 Sep 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

Nationwide house price mm

Aug

0.1%

1 Sep 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

Nationwide house price yy

Aug

8.6%

1 Sep 2021

09:00

Turkey

GDP Quarterly YY

Q2

21.7%

1 Sep 2021

09:00

Turkey

Manufacturing PMI

Aug

1 Sep 2021

09:45

Italy

Markit/IHS Mfg PMI

Aug

60.0

1 Sep 2021

09:50

France

Markit Mfg PMI

Aug

57.3

1 Sep 2021

09:55

Germany

Markit/BME Mfg PMI

Aug

62.7

1 Sep 2021

10:00

Euro Zone

Markit Mfg Final PMI

Aug

61.5

1 Sep 2021

10:30

United Kingdom

Markit/CIPS Mfg PMI Final

Aug

60.1

1 Sep 2021

11:00

Turkey

ITO Istanbul Retail Prices

Aug

1 Sep 2021

11:00

Euro Zone

Unemployment Rate

Jul

7.6%

1 Sep 2021

14:00

Brazil

GDP QQ

Q2

0.2%

1 Sep 2021

14:00

Brazil

GDP YY

Q2

12.8%

1 Sep 2021

15:00

Brazil

Markit Mfg PMI

Aug

1 Sep 2021

15:30

Canada

Markit Mfg PMI SA

Aug

1 Sep 2021

15:45

United States

Markit Mfg PMI Final

Aug

1 Sep 2021

16:00

United States

ISM Manufacturing PMI

Aug

58.5

2 Sep 2021

03:30

Australia

Trade Balance G&S (A$)

Jul

10,200M

2 Sep 2021

09:00

Austria

GDP Growth QQ Final

Q2

2 Sep 2021

14:00

Brazil

Industrial Output MM

Jul

-0.7%

2 Sep 2021

14:00

Brazil

Industrial Output YY

Jul

1.8%

2 Sep 2021

14:30

United States

International Trade $

Jul

-70.9B

2 Sep 2021

14:30

United States

Initial Jobless Clm

28 Aug, w/e

345k

2 Sep 2021

14:30

Canada

Trade Balance C$

Jul

1.70B

2 Sep 2021

16:00

United States

Factory Orders MM

Jul

0.3%

3 Sep 2021

02:30

Japan

Services PMI

Aug

3 Sep 2021

03:45

China (Mainland)

Caixin Services PMI

Aug

3 Sep 2021

09:00

Turkey

CPI MM

Aug

0.60%

3 Sep 2021

09:50

France

Markit Serv PMI

Aug

56.4

3 Sep 2021

09:50

France

Markit Comp PMI

Aug

55.9

3 Sep 2021

09:55

Germany

Markit Services PMI

Aug

61.5

3 Sep 2021

09:55

Germany

Markit Comp Final PMI

Aug

60.6

3 Sep 2021

10:00

Euro Zone

Markit Serv Final PMI

Aug

59.7

3 Sep 2021

10:00

Euro Zone

Markit Comp Final PMI

Aug

59.5

3 Sep 2021

10:30

United Kingdom

Reserve Assets Total

Aug

3 Sep 2021

14:30

United States

Non-Farm Payrolls

Aug

728k

3 Sep 2021

14:30

United States

Unemployment Rate

Aug

5.2%

3 Sep 2021

14:30

United States

Average Earnings YY

Aug

4.0%

3 Sep 2021

15:00

Brazil

Markit Services PMI

Aug

3 Sep 2021

15:00

Brazil

Markit Composite PMI

Aug

3 Sep 2021

15:45

United States

Markit Comp Final PMI

Aug

3 Sep 2021

15:45

United States

Markit Svcs PMI Final

Aug

3 Sep 2021

16:00

United States

ISM N-Mfg PMI

Aug

61.8

6 Sep 2021

08:00

Germany

Industrial Orders MM

Jul

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