US Election Countdown: T-minus One Day – Podcast Round-up

US Election Countdown: T-minus One Day – Podcast Round-up

Macro 5 minutes to read
John J. Hardy

Global Head of Macro Strategy

Summary:  Today I offer a podcast round-up of the series of articles I have run on the US Election Countdown since last Tuesday, with a few maps on Electoral College scenarios, as well as final thoughts on where to focus as election night voting totals roll in.


Today’s article is mostly The Election Countdown Round-up Podcast I uploaded to our podcast host – please have a listen there. Also, below are a series of further notes for perspective on some of the electoral scenarios I discuss on the podcast and some final thoughts on Election Night timing.

Prior articles in this series

Electoral Map Scenarios
Below are three electoral map scenarios with very different implications for the ability of Biden and the Democrats to realize their agenda after Inauguration Day on January 20. My impression of the spectrum of likely outcomes is that a slightly stronger (add Georgia) than the “Blue Wave base case” scenario is at the middle of my distribution of likely outcomes.

Scenario: Murphy’s Law "The Train Wreck"
As I noted in my Election Countdown piece yesterday on whether the major polls and I have the situation all wrong and this Election could prove as close – or closer in electoral college terms – than 2016, then Pennsylvania is the likely key state that makes the difference – in which case the electoral college vote would likely look like what you see below. In this scenario, the only difference is that Michigan and Wisconsin flip back to the Dems with a nail-biter outcome in Pennsylvania. In such a scenario, Biden would likely win by an even larger popular vote margin than did Clinton. The situation in Pennsylvania, with suits and countersuits on whether mail-in votes can be counted a certain number of days after the election and other issues, together with a tardy counting process and low early voting totals means that if the election hangs on the outcome in Pennsylvania, we will be in for the ugliest, drawn out contested election scenario imaginable. Even a theoretical “result” of vote tallies might not be the final word. Let’s hope it doesn’t come down to this.

Source: 270toWin.com

Scenario: Minimal Blue Wave Base Case
The map below is the likely minimal margin required by the Democrats to both send Biden over the top and to win a 50-50 for Dems in the Senate (with VP Harris casting he deciding vote) – from the current 53-47 – as the Dems are likely to lose an Alabama Senate seat, but win seats in Maine, North Carolina, Arizona and Colorado. 

Source: 270toWin.com

Scenario Three: Blue Tsunami
In this scenario, far stronger than expected turnout and polls overfitted for the 2016 election fail to register the surge in young voters in particular and we get the most lopsided results in the electoral college since 1988. The below map would be a political earthquake with Texas as the chief prize for the Dems (the 2020 census and political district redrawings and new electoral votes added there from population growth and in Georgia would further erode the traditional Republican base). This kind of result would make for a far more powerful Democratic mandate to do everything from massive stimulus to Supreme Court packing and adding Puerto Rico and Washington DC as new states, etc.

Source: 270toWin.com

Election Night timing
Besides the two websites I have linked to for a basic overview of Election Night poll closings and the more thorough spin on how quickly results might be available, I would just add once again here that Florida in particular, but also North Carolina, are the two states most in the crosshairs in the first two-three hours after polls close. Both states will have tallied their early votes and could dump the majority of these at the closing of the polls. They will start dramatically Democrat, but how quickly that fades towards Republicans after the more Trump-leaning districts close at 20:00 US Eastern Time will be crucial. Over 90% of Florida has reported by 20:30 after which the final 10% came in slowly.

For the Blue Tsunami scenario, I would focus on Texas, results, where early in-person voter turnout has been staggering (polls close there at 21:00 and 22:00 Eastern US Time)

Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan all report in painfully slow fashion and if overall election is a nail-biter, get ready for a long night on their account.

Keep in mind that the market projects results far more quickly than the news networks. At midnight in New York (0600 CET in Europe), the market had predicted the outcome hours earlier, even with decisive states theoretically up in the air and not called by the major networks. (only 64% of Michigan counted at midnight New York / 0600 CET, for example).

 

 

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Upending the global order at blinding speed

    Quarterly Outlook

    Upending the global order at blinding speed

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ...
  • Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Quarterly Outlook

    Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

The information on or via the website is provided to you by Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. (“Saxo Bank”) for educational and information purposes only. The information should not be construed as an offer or recommendation to enter into any transaction or any particular service, nor should the contents be construed as advice of any other kind, for example of a tax or legal nature.

All trading carries risk. Loses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Saxo Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information provided and shall not be responsible for any errors or omissions or for any losses or damages resulting from the use of such information.

The content of this website represents marketing material and is not the result of financial analysis or research. It has therefore has not been prepared in accordance with directives designed to promote the independence of financial/investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of financial/investment research.

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
The Circle 38
CH-8058
Zürich-Flughafen
Switzerland

Contact Saxo

Select region

Switzerland
Switzerland

All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law. 

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.