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CFDs and forex spot transactions are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor lose money when trading CFDs and/or forex spot with this provider. 0.42% of retail clients trading in leveraged products experience a negative account balance after a stop out occurred. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs, forex spot transactions or any of our other products work and whether you can afford to take high risk of losing your money.
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Macro Dragon: Month/Quarter/Half-Year End... Macro Dragon: Month/Quarter/Half-Year End... Macro Dragon: Month/Quarter/Half-Year End...

Macro Dragon: Month/Quarter/Half-Year End...

Macro 2 minutes to read
Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist

Summary:  Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.

(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)

Macro Dragon: Month/Quarter/Half-Year End... 

 

Top of Mind…

  • So here we are in Asia Tue 30 Jun 2020 morning, at the cusp of the month/quarter/half-year end… & so far pretty smooth, no crazy moves one way or another – yet its all about how the US session closes later today.  
  • Whilst from a price action perspective, we probably have to wait until end of next wk to get a clean technical read on things (ex. Quarter end/start flows), there are two key things that KVP things are the most important going into the monthly & quarterly closes tonight.
  • First is Gold $1771, again very bullish close last wk, not just above the pivotal $1750, yet above $1770 & on track to close well above May’s monthly close of $1730.
  • Again folks, we’ve been saying this on the Dragon for a while – the breakout higher in gold is a BIG deal… check out the daily | weekly |  monthly charts… SpaceX rocket right there! And obviously whilst we keep referring to gold, we mean the entire precious metal complex & asset classes.
  • Second is the US Dollar $97.45 (DXY), post the bearish confirmation of the last few weeks (three consecutive weekly closes below $98.00) the DXY is on track to have it first monthly close sub the pivotal 98.00 lvl since the end of Jan 2020.
  • If this holds – one of KVP’s key view is we are in the midst of a breakdown lower in the USD, with DXY needing to stay sub current 200DMA of c. 98.40. This bodes well for a number of different reasons, not just gold & commodities, yet generally EM assets & overall risk-on sentiment.
  • Ze dollar bulls would argue, the weekly 200MA is c. 96.50 & so far the DXY keep bouncing up from that lvl to the 100WMA of 97.50, i.e. we have not really broke lover on the USD.

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To Keep In Mind Today

  • JP: U/R, Flash IP, Housing Starts
  • CH: Mfg. PMI 50.9a 50.4e 50.6p, Serv. PMI 54.4a 53.3e 53.6p
  • NZ: ANZ Business Confidence
  • AU: Private Sector Credit
  • UK: Current Account, Final 1Q GDP -2.0%e/p, Biz Inv  
  • EZ: Flash CPI -0.1%e +0.1%p, Flash CORE CPI +0.8%e +0.9%p
  • US: Chicago PMI 45.0e 32.3p, FOMC speakers Williams & Brainard @ 23:00 SGT, Powell @ 00:30, Kashkari @ 02:00  

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Start-End = Gratitude + Integrity + Vision + Tenacity. Process > Outcome. Sizing > Idea.

This is the way

Namaste,


KVP

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    Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.

    Read article

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    Read article

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