Market Quick Take – 9 September 2025

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: U.S. markets rose as FED-cut hopes prevailed; Europe advanced; Asia firmer with Hong Kong up on reserves data and chip-policy headlines
• Volatility: VIX mid-teens; low risk pricing; SPX move ±22 pts; payrolls watch
• Digital Assets: BTC steady; ETF flows split; ETH consolidates; altcoins rangebound
• Fixed Income: US Treasury yields fall further – 10-year benchmark nearly to 4.00%
• Currencies: USD weakens further, with JPY stumbling
• Commodities: Overbought gold hits another record amid frenzied rate-cut focus
• Macro events: US Aug. Small Business Optimism, US Treasury to auction 3-year notes

Macro headlines

• US consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead increased to 3.2% in August 2025 from 3.1% in July. Expected cost changes fell for college education (-0.9 to 7.8%), rent (-1.0 to 6.0%), and medical care (-0.4 to 8.8%).
• Norway’s ruling centre-left party coalition claimed victory in Norway’s elections, and appears set to take 88 seats in the 169-seat legislature.
• French PM Bayrou lost the confidence vote in the National Assembly, as expected, and will now need to tender his resignation.
• UK retail sales grew 2.9% year-on-year in August 2025, the strongest in four months, exceeding July's 1.8% and forecasts of 2%. Warm weather increased demand, but the rise was largely due to higher food prices. Food sales rose 4.7%, non-food 1.8%. Modest online gains suggest cautious spending. Retailers are wary of consumer confidence ahead of Christmas, amid high costs and budget uncertainty.
• Germany's trade surplus shrank to EUR 14.9 billion in July 2025 from EUR 15.4 billion in June, the smallest since October 2024, as exports fell more than imports. Exports dropped 0.6% to EUR 130.2 billion, with sales to non-EU countries down 4.5%, including a 7.9% decrease to the US. Conversely, shipments to EU countries rose by 2.5%.
• China's exports rose 4.4% in August 2025 to USD 321.8 billion, below expectations and the slowest since February, due to tariff easing and reduced demand. A 90-day tariff truce with the US kept tariffs at 30% and 10%. Exports grew to Japan, Taiwan, Australia, ASEAN, and the EU.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

1000 – US Aug NFIB Small Business Optimism
1600 – EIA's Short-term Energy Outlook (STEO)
1700 – US to Sell USD 58 billion 3-year Notes

Earnings events

Note: earnings announcement dates can change with little notice. Consult other sources to confirm earnings releases as they approach.

Earnings this week

• Today: Oracle, Synopsys, Rubrik, Aerovironment
• Wed: Inditex
• Thu: Adobe, Kroger

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: S&P 500 rose 0.2%, Nasdaq 100 added 0.5%, and Dow gained 0.3% (+114 pts) as positioning firmed ahead of PPI/CPI and rising odds of a 50 bp September cut. Tech led: Amazon +1.5%, Broadcom +3.2% on AI order chatter, Nvidia +0.8%, and Oracle +2.4% into earnings. Index reshuffle flows boosted Robinhood +15.8% and AppLovin +11.6% after S&P 500 additions, while Apple −0.8% ahead of product news and T-Mobile −3.9% as spectrum headlines weighed. Focus turns to inflation prints for confirmation of the easing path.
• Europe: Euro Stoxx 50 +0.8% and Stoxx 600 +0.5%; FTSE 100 +0.1%. Gains came as ASML rallied 2.5% after moving to become Mistral AI’s top shareholder, while cyclicals firmed with Siemens +2.1%. Political risk stayed in frame after France’s PM François Bayrou was ousted in a confidence vote, though broader tape held on Fed-cut hopes and stable yields. The ECB meeting later this week remains the key policy catalyst for regional risk.
• Asia: Hang Seng rose 0.9% to 25,634, extending its rebound as China’s FX reserves hit the highest since 2015 and U.S. plans for annual Samsung/SK Hynix China-supply approvals supported tech sentiment. Baidu surged 9.5% on a bond issuance plan, while Bank of China (HK) gained 2.2% with financials firmer. Regional attention tracks U.S. inflation signals and any follow-through from chip export-control adjustments.

Volatility

• The VIX closed at 15.11 on Sep 8, down 0.07 (-0.46 %), while the S&P 500 added 13.65 points to finish at 6 495.15 (+0.21%). Trading in VIX options was active with 460k contracts changing hands, 76% of which were calls. Short-dated gauges such as VIX1D fell sharply, showing little investor urgency to hedge. Equity volatility remains firmly in the mid-teens, signalling orderly swings rather than stress despite busy event risk. Based on options pricing, today’s SPX expected move is ±22 points (≈0.34%), pointing to a contained session. Investors should, however, keep an eye on today’s Payrolls Benchmark release, which could stir short-term volatility if surprises emerge.

Digital Assets

• Bitcoin trades steady around $112.5k, up modestly from Monday, but derivatives data show traders remain cautious. Options skew leans toward puts and demand for downside hedges has risen, reflecting persistent caution even as futures funding rates hold near neutral. Spot-ETF flows highlight the split: US bitcoin ETFs drew $364m Monday, with IBIT gaining $25.5m, while ethereum products saw -$96.7m net, with ETHA posting the largest outflow at -$192.7m. Ether consolidates near $4.3k, while SOL hovers above $215 and XRP stays near $2.95. Beyond flows, sentiment is shaped by Nasdaq’s SEC filing to trade tokenized stocks and reports of the largest JavaScript supply-chain hack to date. These underscore how traditional markets and security risks continue to shape the crypto narrative.

Fixed Income

• US treasuries rallied further on Monday, with the benchmark 10-year treasury yield falling a few basis points to below 4.05% for the first time since the early April chaos surrounding the announcement of Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs. The benchmark 2-year treasury yield fell as low as 3.47% yesterday before rebounding closer to 3.50% as the market mulls whether the Fed might cut 50 basis points at the FOMC meeting next week. The final major data point ahead of that meeting is Thursday’s US August CPI data.
• Japanese Government Bonds were mixed amidst a flattening of the yield curve as the benchmark 2-year JGB sold off and the yield edged slightly higher to 0.834% while the benchmark 10-year JGB rallied and the yield edged slightly more than a basis point lower at 1.56%.
• The Germany-France 10-year yield spread was stable to slightly tighter at 77 basis points at the close of trading yesterday ahead of French PM Bayrou losing a confidence vote that prompted his resignation, a development that was widely expected.

Commodities

• Gold climbed to another record above USD 3,650, with silver trading at 14-year highs amid continued focus on incoming US rate cuts and renewed dollar weakness. Bullion has rallied more than 8% since Trump tried to sack Lisa Cook, thereby threatening the independence of the Fed while triggering a technical price breakout. Since then, weak US jobs numbers and technical momentum have driven prices to current—and increasingly overbought—levels, yet with technical analysis pointing towards a target around USD 3,800. The next focus is Thursday’s US CPI print, which may cement a 25-bps rate cut or raise speculation further about a 50-bps cut.
• Crude prices steadied following Monday’s relief rally after eight OPEC+ members announced a modest production hike for October, most of which is unlikely to be implemented amid production capacity constraints, and others having to compensate for previous overproduction. Softening demand leading to an oversupplied market remains a key risk, as Saudi Arabia seeks to regain market share while lowering its pricing for most grades next month.

Currencies

• The US dollar weakened further yesterday and is now trading at the bottom of the range against a number of currencies. EURUSD trades near 1.1770 this morning, the highest level since late July and ahead of the multi-year high of 1.1829 poted in early July. AUDUSD trades above 0.6600 this or off Friday on the weak August jobs report, as EURUSD rallied well clear of 1.1700 and above the range since late July of 1.1743, while USDJPY tested below 147.00 late Friday. But the news of Japan’s PM Ishiba stepping down brought a sharp sell-off in the JPY overnight, sending USDJPY back above 148.50 at one point overnight before the price action settled back toward 148.00.
• USDJPY still trades above 147.00 and within the persistent range of the last many weeks, though the JPY strengthened more broadly overnight, overcoming most of the lost ground prompted by Japan’s PM Ishiba announcing his resignation. The range focus there is on the 146.00 area.