Market Quick Take – 29 September 2025

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: Wall Street rebounded on in-line inflation; Europe rose as banks and cyclicals led; Asia was mixed as Hong Kong and China gained while Japan slipped
• Volatility: VIX stayed subdued into quarter-end as markets weighed a possible U.S. government shutdown and a busy macro week
• Digital Assets: Bitcoin held near USD 112k, ether above USD 4k, with ETF flows keeping institutional demand in focus; majors traded mixed
• Currencies: USD trades weaker, JPY firmer ahead of US government shutdown risk
• Commodities: Silver and platinum lead gold to fresh record. Crude lower on OPEC+ supply speculation
• Fixed Income: Global yields ease lower to start the week.
• Macro events: White House meeting to avoid a government shut down

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Macro headlines

• The US PCE price index rose 0.3% in August 2025, meeting expectations. Goods prices increased 0.1%, and services costs grew 0.3%. Core PCE, excluding food and energy, rose 0.2%. Food prices increased 0.5%, while energy costs rebounded by 0.8%. Annual headline PCE inflation reached 2.7%, the highest in six months, and core PCE inflation remained at 2.9%, both matching forecasts.
• US personal spending rose 0.6% month-on-month in August 2025, surpassing expectations of 0.5%. This marked the largest increase in five months. Nondurable goods spending rebounded to 0.8%, services rose steadily at 0.5%, while durable goods spending eased to 0.8%.
• China’s industrial profits surged 20.4% in August, easing fears of lost economic momentum, while signaling that the national campaigns to tackle overcapacity and excessive competition are bearing fruit. The data coming ahead of China’s Golden Week holiday, starting 1 October, which traders will monitor closely for travel and consumption trends.
• The Trump administration is said to be contemplating the imposition of tariffs on imported electronic devices, which would be calculated according to the number of chips contained in each device.
• Eurozone median consumer inflation expectations rose to 2.8% in August 2025, with expectations for five years ahead at 2.2%, the highest since August 2022. Lower-income quintiles continued having higher inflation expectations than higher-income groups. Economic growth expectations stayed at -1.2%, and unemployment expectations rose to 10.7%.
• If a federal shutdown triggers the Department of Labor’s contingency plan, the September jobs report due this Friday would be delayed, leaving the Fed without key data before its next meeting and potentially compromising future estimates and the September CPI release. Top congressional leaders plan to meet with President Donald Trump today, a day before federal funding would expire if an agreement on a short-term spending bill can’t be reached.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0700 – Spain September CPI
0830 – UK August Mortgage Approvals
0900 – Eurozone Confidence surveys
1430 – US Sep. Dallas Fed Manufacturing survey
2350 – Japan Aug. Industrial Production

Top congressional leaders meet Trump to discuss a short-term spending bill to avoid a shutdown

Earnings events

• Monday: Carnival Cruise
• Tuesday: Nike, Paychex
• Thursday: Tesco PLC

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: U.S. equities rebounded after three sessions of losses as inflation data matched expectations, easing fears of renewed price pressures. The S&P 500 rose 0.6%, the Nasdaq 100 0.4%, and the Dow Jones 0.7%. Apple gained 2.1% on reports of a new AI-powered Siri app, Intel climbed 3.4% on talk of a White House push to cut reliance on overseas chips, and Boeing advanced 3.6% as regulators restored some oversight powers. Paccar rose 2.5% after tariffs on imported trucks were announced. Investors now look to this week’s jobs report, though a possible government shutdown could delay its release.
• Europe: European shares gained on Friday, with the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.9% at 5,495 and the STOXX 600 up 0.7% at 554. Banks and industrials led as lower yields boosted rate-sensitive sectors. ArcelorMittal added 3% after the EU announced tariffs on Chinese steel, while Daimler slipped 1.9% on concerns over U.S. levies on heavy trucks. Pharmaceuticals lagged as Trump proposed a 100% tariff on patented drugs, sending Novo Nordisk down 3.5% and Roche 1%. Despite trade tensions, the Euro Stoxx 50 gained 0.7% over the week.
• Asia: Asian markets opened mixed after Wall Street’s rebound. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng climbed 1.3% on tech and pharma strength, while China’s CSI 300 rose 0.5% as industrial profits jumped 20.4% year-on-year in August, the first rise in four months. Japan’s Topix fell 1.6% as ex-dividend trading weighed on major names. Australia’s ASX 200 added 0.6% on support from banks and miners. Investors weighed China’s policy support ahead of Golden Week and monitored U.S. shutdown risks.

Volatility

• Equity volatility stayed contained, with the VIX closing at 16.9, as markets balanced quarter-end flows with the risk of a U.S. government shutdown that could delay key data and cloud the Fed outlook. Oil eased, while China’s Golden Week will thin liquidity. Wednesday’s ISM Manufacturing is the main scheduled catalyst. Options imply the S&P 500 may move about ±0.4% (≈±28 points) today.

Digital Assets

• Bitcoin trades near USD 112,000 in Europe, while ether holds around USD 4,100. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) leads with about USD 84bn AUM, and its iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) has topped USD 15bn, underscoring institutional demand. Among majors, solana sits near USD 210, xrp around USD 2.5, bnb just under USD 1,000, and toncoin at USD 2.7. The focus now is whether ETF flows turn positive post quarter-end and if U.S. fiscal risks spill into crypto.

Fixed Income

• US treasury yields dipped on Friday, with the benchmark 10-year treasury yield shying away from the key 4.19-4.20% area that was the bottom of the previous range after testing that area on both Thursday and Friday.
• Japan’s government bond yields edged lower overnight all along the curve after recent notable strength in the longest 40-year JGB’s, which now yield 3.37% after the spike high in May to 3.70%. Closer to the front end of the curve, the benchmark 10-year JGB yield dipped two basis points to trade below 1.64% after posting post-GFC highs at 1.67% last week.

Commodities

• Silver and platinum’s relentless rallies extended further in Asia today with silver trading above USD 47 and platinum above USD 1600. The gold-silver ratio has slumped below its 10-year average, suggesting it is no longer cheap on a relative basis. Gold meanwhile hit a fresh record above USD 3,800 supported by strong underlying demand from funds through ETFs with additional focus on the risk of potential government shutdown on Wednesday.
• Crude oil trades softer following last week’s geo-political focused and short covering led rally that briefly saw Brent trade back above USD 70. Today’s drift driven by expectations of another OPEC+ output hike in November fueling oversupply concerns. The Saudi-led alliance is considering lifting production by at least the 137,000 barrels a day already scheduled for next month.

Currencies

• The US dollar weakened again, likely in part on US treasury yields dipping lower and away from key levels that might set the market on edge (above 4.20% for the benchmark 10-year yield, for example). The JPY was the strongest major currency overnight, with USDJPY dipping well below 149.00 after nearly testing 150.00 on Thursday and Friday of last week. EURUSD rose back to 1.1725 overnight after a run
• Yen traders are not just watching developments in global yields, but also the LDP leadership election slated for this Saturday, with one of two leading candidates, Sanae Takaichi, seen as far more in favour of fiscal stimulus programs, and also declaring an interest in revisiting the US-Japan trade deal.