Market Quick Take – 25 September 2025

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: US slipped on tech softness; Europe edged lower as luxury fell while energy and defence rose; Asia firmer with Hong Kong rebounding despite typhoon disruption
• Volatility: PCE, GDP, Powell drive focus, VIX steady but jumpy
• Digital Assets: ETH exchange supply hits 9-yr low, XRP CME OI grows
• Currencies: USD firms again, especially versus a weak yen.
• Commodities: Copper jumps on material supply disruptions. Crude near range top
• Fixed Income: US yields rise all along the curve
• Macro events: Several Fed speakers, US jobless claims & Existing home sales

Macro headlines

• HSBC said it had used IBM’s Heron quantum processor for a better understanding of the probability that corporate bonds would sell at a given price, potentially enhancing market efficiency.
• U.S. single-family home sales surged 20.5% in August 2025 to an annual rate of 800K units, the highest since January 2022, likely lifted by builder’s price cuts and sales incentives.
• Germany's Ifo Business Climate Index dropped to 87.7 in September 2025, the lowest since May, missing market expectations and reflecting growing pessimism. Both expectations and current conditions worsened amid uncertainty over US tariff policy.
• The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in the U.S. dropped to 6.34% in the week ending September 19, 2025, the lowest since September 2024, following a fourth consecutive weekly decline. This decrease aligns with lower Treasury yields after the Fed cut rates by 25bps and indicated further cuts.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0730- SNB's Rate Decision
1230 – US Weekly Jobless Claims
1230 – US 2Q Personal Consumption, GDP, PCE
1230 – US Aug Durable Goods Orders
1400 – US August Existing Home Sales
1430 – EIA's Weekly Natural Gas Storage Change
1700 – US Treasury to auction 7-year notes

Fed speakers: Miran (1215), Goolsbee (1220), Schmid (1300), Williams (1300), Bowman (1400), Barr (1700)

Earnings this week

• Today: Costco, Accenture, H&M Hennes & Mauritz,

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: S&P 500 −0.3%, Nasdaq 100 −0.3%, Dow −0.4% as investors faded AI leaders after Chair Powell said equity prices are “fairly highly valued” while inflation risks remain two-sided. Nvidia −0.8% following scrutiny of its OpenAI outlay; Oracle −1.7% extended post-earnings weakness; Micron −2.8% despite solid prints as guidance and cycle timing tempered enthusiasm. A 20.5% jump in August new-home sales aided housing, with Lennar +2.0% and D.R. Horton +0.7% on rate-buydown tailwinds. Focus turns to PCE inflation for confirmation of the Fed’s path.
• Europe: Euro Stoxx 50 −0.1% and Stoxx 600 −0.2% as luxury reversed: LVMH −2.7%, Hermès −3.1%, and L’Oréal −2.0%. Energy outperformed with TotalEnergies +2.1% and Eni +1.8% as crude steadied. Defence bid persisted, led by Rheinmetall +3.5% and Leonardo +4.6%. Sector rotation dominated while geopolitics and upcoming US data kept risk in check.
• Asia: Regional tone improved. Nikkei 225 +0.4% while Hang Seng +1.4% to 26,519 as Beijing’s draft rules to curb “food-war” fees lifted platforms: Meituan +1% and JD.com +3.6%. Alibaba +9.2% in Hong Kong on a plan to lift AI spend beyond $53bn; SMIC +5.8% on AI optimism. Travel disruption lingered as Hong Kong resumed flights after Super Typhoon Ragasa; Cathay Pacific canceled 500+ services with a gradual restart into Thursday–Friday. Kospi was little changed.

Volatility

• Volatility remains subdued but twitchy as markets await Friday’s key PCE inflation print. The VIX eased to 16.18 (−2.76%), consistent with moderate near-term risk. Traders are watching a busy U.S. data slate today, including GDP and jobless claims, alongside earnings from Costco and Accenture. Recent Fed commentary has added to uncertainty around the rate path, keeping intraday swings alive without sustained panic. Notably, SPX dropped −0.28% on Wednesday, with VIX call volume surging to nearly 74% of total trades—a sign of hedging demand. Despite this, overall volatility remains contained, suggesting a wait-and-see mood rather than fear.
• SPX expected move today: ±27 points, based on 0-DTE options.

Digital Assets

• Crypto sentiment cooled slightly overnight, with BTC at $111,779 (−1.38%) and ETH at $4,031 (−2.97%), though ETF flows remain supportive. IBIT (+1.59%) and ETHA (+0.16%) both posted modest inflows, reflecting steady institutional interest. ETH supply on exchanges has dropped to a 9-year low, with over 10% of total ETH now held by treasuries and ETFs, reducing sell pressure and hinting at long-term confidence.
• XRP also saw rising futures activity, with CME now second in XRP open interest behind Bitget, possibly signalling ETF hopes. SOL and XRP are volatile but remain in focus, with SOL falling −2.79% and XRP −2.04%. Watch for macro drivers like USD strength and month-end positioning.

Fixed Income

• US treasury yields bounced back yesterday a yesterday, with yields rising toward recent highs from two years out to 10 and the 5-year benchmark treasury yield posting a local high at 3.72% after an indifferent auction of 5-year treasuries yesterday. The US Treasury will auction 7-year notes today.
• The 10-year France-Germany sovereign yield spread closed at its highest level since January, nudging one basis point higher to close above 82 basis points. The highest this spread has reached since the 2010-12 Eurozone sovereign debt crisis was 88.5 basis points in December of last year.
• Oracle issued USD 18 billion in investment grade bonds yesterday, with demand for as much as USD 88 billion for the offering at multiple maturities, including a rare 40-year bond.

Commodities

• Copper prices jumped more than 4% on Wednesday with the LME futures breaking above key resistance at USD 10,160 per tons after Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) declared force majeure on contracted supplies from its massive Grasberg mine in Indonesia, the world’s second largest accounting for 3% of global output. While the search continued for survivors following a deadly 800,000 metric tons mudslide last week, Freeport tumbled 17% as the accident would reduce near term copper and gold output with a full recovery potentially taking years.
• Gold traded lower as the dollar rose with traders booking profits ahead of Fridays key US inflation and jobs data, and several speeches today from Fed members. Bullion has gained 10% this month supported by ETF inflows and expectations for lower funding costs as the Fed resumes its rate cutting cycle.
• Brent crude trades near top of range, supported by Trump’s escalated rhetoric against Russia. In addition, U.S. crude inventories declined last week to the lowest since January, while the latest Dallas Fed Energy Survey painted a grim picture for the shale industry ability to prosper amid Trump’s steel tariffs and abrupt shifts in energy policies. Countering these are ongoing OPEC+ production hikes and the resumption of exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan region.

Currencies

• The US dollar strengthened a bit further yesterday before easing back a bit overnight, with EURUSD eyeing the 1-week lows near 1.1730 late yesterday and USDJPY closing at its highest level in weeks and above its 200-day moving average for the first time since early August, trading as high as 148.92. The intraday high of the recent multi-week range is 149.14.

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