Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 6 March 2024 Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 6 March 2024 Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 6 March 2024

Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 6 March 2024

Macro 3 minutes to read
Saxo Strategy Team

Summary:  Big tech weighed on broader US equity indices Tuesday with Nvidia being the lone gainer among the Magnificent Seven stocks, which slid between 0.5% and 3.9%, while China’s NPC announcements have also been underwhelming. Gold and Bitcoin touched record highs before seeing profit taking. Super Tuesday results point to a re-match between Biden and Trump. While gold glitters, traders look to Powell, who in his semiannual testimony before Congress is expected to stick to his relatively hawkish script and reinforce that policymakers aren't rushing to cut interest rates.

The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events.

Equities: Momentum in US equities has come to a halt in the short-term with S&P 500 futures down 1% yesterday driven by losses across the Magnificent Sevent stocks. In the Asian session, Hang Seng futures bounced back by 2% after the recent weakness. NIO reported Q4 earnings last night after the US market close with Q4 revenue beating estimates while gross margin and earnings disappointed as the EV price war is taken its toll on profitability. CrowdStrike also reported Q4 earnings last night beating expectations on both revenue and EPS on top of Q1 guidance beating estimates pushing shares up 24% in extended trading. In today’s session will focus on whether US equities will continue to roll, earnings (before US market opens), and in the Europe with expect focus on technology stocks.

FX: Forex markets remain subdued, with action only seen in non-traditional FX pairs reflecting Gold and Bitcoin that touched record highs but pared some gains subsequently. Bitcoin (XBTUSD) set a record high at 69k+ before retreating but positive momentum returned in the Asian session today. Gold (XAUUSD) still seen close to $2130 after record highs of $2140+ in the NY session. Yen strengthened as well with yields slipping on soft ISM services data, but USDJPY could only go down a notch below 150. Chair Powell’s testimony will be in focus today, and any downplay of hot inflation prints could be a dovish reading. EURUSD made another failed attempt to challenge resistance in the 1.09-area following ISM release before returning to mid-range around 1.0850. CAD struggled ahead of Bank of Canada announcement today, where a dovish surprise, although less likely without the Fed changing course, could bring the 61.8% fibo retracement at 1.3623 in USDCAD in focus.

Commodities: Gold momentum extended further, taking XAUUSD to a fresh record high, and although the rush from momentum traders to rebuild longs have slowed, any dovish hints from Powell today could mean further gains may be on the radar. huper Tuesday confirming Trump’s Republican nomination could also support Gold as geopolitics become a big focus and central bank buying will be expected to ramp up further. Oil prices ended the day lower as China’s GDP growth target remained modest and none of the announcements so far have been able to spark optimism. Private US crude inventories also rose by 400,000 barrels last week with focus on official EIA numbers later today.

Fixed income: US Treasuries gained following mixed data. The February ISM services missed estimates, although remaining above 50, indicating expansion, and priced paid and employment components surprised on the downside. As data showed signs of a weakening economy, the US yield curve bull flattened, with long-term yield dropping to 7bp and front-term yields adjusting 5bp lower. Ten-year yields ended the day around 4.15%. Today, Fed Chair Powell will testify before the House Financial Services Committee and in front of the Senate Banking Committee tomorrow. Markets will be looking at whether Powell will validate the expectations of three rate cuts, as shown in the December dot plot, as a new dot plot will be released in a couple of weeks. As explained in this piece, we bear in mind last week’s Waller comments and expect the Federal Reserve to taper Quantitative Tightening at the next FOMC. In Europe, the focus today is on the UK, with Chancellor Jeremy Hunt announcing the economic plans and changes to fiscal policy. The announcement will be key for bondholders. It could be bearish for Gilts if it shows signs of stimulating the economy, hence inflation. A preview ahead of the ECB meeting tomorrow can be found here.

Macro:  US ISM Services fell to 52.6 in February from 53.4 and beneath the expected 53.0. Internally, prices paid encouragingly fell to 58.6 from 64.0 and business activity lifted to 57.2 (prev. 55.8). Employment dipped back into contractionary territory (48.0 from 50.5) while new orders rose to 56.1 (prev. 55.0). Super Tuesday saw President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump dominate across the country, piling on the delegates with notable victories in California and Texas. Trump rolled to victory in at least 12 of tonight's Republican races, although his sole GOP rival, Nikki Haley, foiled a possible clean sweep by winning the Vermont primary. Biden isn’t facing any major competition in the primary cycle and won all but one of the Democratic contests, as he gears up for a likely rematch with Trump.

Technical analysis highlights: S&P 500 top and reversal unfolding, minor support at 5,048, strong support at 4,920. Nasdaq 100 testing support at 17,808, a close below likely move to 17,300. DAX top and reversal, expect correction unfolding, support at 17,326. EURUSD range bound 1,0790-1,09. USDJPY range bound 149.20-150.90. EURJPY testing uptrend potential to 164.30, support at 161. GBPUSD likely to break resistance at 1.27 with a move to 1.2775. Gold spiked to new highs but expect minor correction before likely new highs towards 2,200. US10-year T-yields testing minor support at 4.11

Volatility: On Tuesday, the VIX rose to $14.46 (+0.97 | +7.19%), with the VVIX also up to 83.91 (+4.50 | +5.67%), reflecting increased market nervousness, especially within the tech sector. The SKEW index slightly dropped to 144.90 (-1.04 | -0.71%). Market focus is now on Fed Chair Powell's congressional testimony and key employment data, which could introduce more volatility. CrowdStrike's stock leapt over 23% after-hours, driven by strong Q4 results and positive forecasts. VIX futures are at 14.610 (-0.095 | -0.63%), with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures showing modest gains at 5089.75 (+3.75 | +0.07%) and 17974.50 (+44.25 | +0.25%). Tuesday's top traded stock options were: TSLA, AAPL, NVDA, SOFI, AMD, MARA, MSFT, INTC, GOOGL, and NIO. Bitcoin's volatility was also on display, hitting a new high of $69,000, then falling 14%, and rebounding 11% in less than a day.

In the news: UK government to deliver crucial pre-election budget announcements with economy in recession (CNBC), China makes science and tech a budget priority with 10% jump in spending (SCMP), Japan stock rally spreads beyond chip sector to construction (Nikkei Asia), Trump wins Virginia as he seeks knockout blow to Haley on Super Tuesday (Reuters), Meta's Facebook, Instagram back up after global outage (Reuters), NYCB Bounces After Two-Day Rout Brought Shares to 1996 Level (Bloomberg)

Macro events (all times are GMT): US ADP employment change (Feb) exp 150k vs 107k (1215), Bank of Canada rate decision, exp unchanged 5% (1345), Fed Chair Powell testifies before Congress (1400), US Jolts openings (Jan) exp 8850k vs 9026k (1400), EIA’s weekly crude and fuel stock report (1430),

Earnings events: Today’s earnings focus is Chinese e-commerce retailer as a look into the health of the Chinese consumer. Analysts are expecting Q4 revenue growth of 1.5% YoY and EBITDA of $9.5bn up from $8.4bn

  • Today: Deutsche Post, Brown-Forman,, Legal & General, Dassault Aviation
  • Thursday: MTR, Techtronic Industries, Prada, Merck KGaA, Costsco, Broadcom, Marvell Technology, MongoDB, Samsara, Kroger, Continental, Vivendi, DocuSign
  • Friday: Oracle, China Unicom Hong Kong, ZTE

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
Full disclaimer (
Full disclaimer (

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
The Circle 38

Contact Saxo

Select region


All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law.

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.