Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 2 July 2024 Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 2 July 2024 Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 2 July 2024

Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 2 July 2024

Macro 3 minutes to read
Saxo Strategy Team

Key points:

  • Equities: European equities indicated lower ahead of inflation. Focus on Nike.
  • Currencies: Dollar rises as Trump risk lifts US yields
  • Commodities: Crude near two-high; natural gas slumps
  • Fixed Income: Eurozone preliminary June CPI data are in the spotlight.
  • Economic data: Eurozone June CPI, US JOLTS job openings

The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events.

Saxo’s Quarterly Outlook is out and can be accessed here

The title is Sandcastle economics reflecting that the economy and financial markets look pretty with resilient growth and equities at an all-time high. We expect favourable market conditions to continue in Q3, but sandcastles are naturally fragile and thus our clients should be aware of the potential risks lurking around the corners ranging from geopolitics, US election in Q4, unsustainable fiscal trends, and demographics longer term.

In the news: Dollar soars near 38-year yen peak as Trump risk lifts US yields (Reuters), Tesla deliveries set to fall for second straight quarter (Reuters), Salesforce shareholders reject compensation plan for CEO Marc Benioff (CNBC), Iran faces runoff election between reformist and ultra-conservative presidential candidates amid record low turnout (CNBC), China property firms jump after big developers show smaller sales drop (Reuters), Anger mounts at Joe Biden’s inner circle after debate debacle (FT), Hurricane Beryl, the earliest Category 5 Atlantic hurricane on record (CNN)

Equities: European equities were starting yesterday on a positive note after the French first-round election results showed that National Rally was less likely to get an outright majority in the French election. But the positive mood was short and European equities ended the session lower with futures pointing to a lower open again today. The key event today is the Eurozone preliminary June CPI figures expected to indicate 2.8 % YoY vs 2.9 % YoY complicating the picture for the ECB as inflation figures are lagging and forward indicators are suggesting Eurozone growth is picking up. Later in the US session, we get JOLTS job openings which is getting more attention in recent years because of its link to understanding labour market tightness. In the US equity session yesterday, the high-volume stocks were Nike, HCA Healthcare, and Tesla. Nike is stabilising after its brutal decline last week following a weaker than estimated revenue outlook.

Macro: US ISM manufacturing PMI for June saw the headline post a surprise decline to 48.5 from 48.7, beneath the 49.1 forecast. The subcomponents of the report saw prices paid ease to 52.1 from 57.0, taking it to the lowest level in 2024 so far, while employment fell into contractionary territory at 49.3 from 51.1. New Orders rose to 49.3 from 45.4, indicating a further slowdown, albeit at a slower rate than in May. We discussed the broadening of weakness in the US economy in yesterdays Saxo Market Call podcast, and the US JOLTS jobs openings will be key to watch today. Germany’s headline inflation came in lower than expected in June, although core is not reported in the preliminary numbers. Headline inflation was at 2.5% YoY from 2.8% in May, driven by lower fuel costs. Today’s focus turns to Euro-area inflation for June.

Macro events (times in GMT): EC CPI (Jun Prelim) exp 2.5% YoY vs 2.6% prior and core 2.8% vs 2.9% prior (0900), US JOLTS Job Openings (May), exp. 7864k vs 8059k prior (1400), API’s Weekly Crude and Fuel Stock Report (2030).  Speakers: Fed's Powell, ECB's Lagarde (1330)

Earnings events: There are no important earnings releases this week.

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar

Fixed income: Sovereign bonds on both sides of the Atlantic tumbled as French centrist and left-wing parties consider joining forces to prevent the rally party from gaining an absolute majority. Traders unwound their safe-haven positions, leading to a roughly 10 basis point spike across tenors, resulting in 10-year Bund yields closing at 2.6%. Interestingly, Italian BTPs outperformed their peers, rising only about 2 basis points, while French government bonds rose by approximately 5 basis points on the day. The outperformance of Italian sovereigns might be due to ongoing fiscal concerns, which will continue to put pressure on sovereign bonds, prompting investors to prefer higher-yielding securities. In the U.S., yields rose as markets weighed the implications of a potential Trump presidency following the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling granting partial immunity from criminal charges, ensuring that a trial won’t occur before the November election. Ten-year Treasury yields rose by 8 basis points in the long end while remaining flat in the short end. Today the focus is on Europe CPI preliminary data, which is expected to come in at 2.8% June from 2.9% in May.

Commodities: Oil prices trade near a two-month high, supported by Middle East tensions, an unusual early start to the Atlantic hurricane season, and summer demand expectations. The 5% rally during the past month has been further fuelled by hedge funds, who according to the latest COT report doubled their net long during a three-week period to June 25. U.S. natural gas futures slumped to a six-week low, driven by higher production, reduced demand forecasts, and an excess of gas in storage. Gold and silver both finding a bid despite rising yields and a stronger dollar on speculation a Trump presidency may add upward pressure to inflation

FX: There was a sense of relief in the European markets on Monday following the first round of French elections, which signaled that Marine Le Pen may not get an absolute majority. The euro rose while the safe-haven currency Swiss franc underperformed. US bond yields rose late in the overnight session with markets considering the possibility of another Trump presidency after last week’s debate and Supreme Court ruling limiting the chance of Trump facing a trial before the November election. The US Dollar rose as a result, while the Japanese yen slipped to record lows once again. The New Zealand dollar and the Australian dollar also slipped, and the latter will be eyeing the minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s June policy meeting where the door for a rate hike was kept open. To read more about our FX view, go to the Weekly FX Chartbook published yesterday.

Volatility: The VIX closed Monday at $12.22 (-0.22 | -1.77%), continuing last week's decline. The SKEW index rose to 145.82 (+4.03 | +2.84%). Today's focus will be on the Fed Chair Powell's speech and JOLTs Job Openings, which are expected to influence market volatility. VIX futures are currently at $13.400 (-0.020 | -0.13%). S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures showed negative movement: S&P 500 futures are at 5527.00 (-6.75 | -0.12%) and Nasdaq 100 futures are at 20010.75 (-41.25 | -0.21%). Monday's top 10 most traded stock options included Nvidia, Tesla, Apple, Amazon, Advanced Micro Devices, Nike, Marathon Digital Holdings, GameStop, Rivian Automotive, and Chewy.

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
Full disclaimer (
Full disclaimer (

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
The Circle 38

Contact Saxo

Select region


All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law. 

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.