China Updates: Things to watch at the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party China Updates: Things to watch at the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party China Updates: Things to watch at the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party

China Updates: Things to watch at the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party

Macro
Redmond Wong

Market Strategist, Greater China

Summary:  The Chinese Communist Party is holding its once every five years National Congress starting on Sunday, Oct 16. The key things to watch will be General Secretary Xi’s speech and delivery of the 19th Central Committee’s Work Report which will give investors a glimpse of Chinese leadership’s assessment of the world and the current state of the country and its policy priorities for China for the next five years. On Oct 23, investors will learn about who will be among the top leadership for the next five years in China from the decisions of the 1st plenary session of the newly elected 20th Central Committee.


The Chinese Communist Party’s (the “CCP”) 20th National Congress will convene this Sunday, Oct 16. A total of around 2,300 delegates of CCP members from all over China will gather in Beijing to attend this once every five years important political event to approve the review and approve the Work Report of the 19th Central Committee, to elect the members of the 20th Central Committee and the members of the 20th Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, and to amend the CCP’s constitution.

The Work Report of the 19th Central Committee presented on Sunday, Oct 16

The Central Committee is the de jure highest official body of the CCP and its Work Report was written by a drafting team under the Standing Committee of the Politburo and supervised directly by General Secretary Xi Jinping. The Work Report reviews and gives the CCP top leadership’s assessment of the work in the past five years and most importantly, the directions of policy priorities for the next five years. On Sunday, Oct 16, Xi will make a speech and presents the Work Report to the 20th National Congress.

While there is speculation among some analysts looking for a shift in policy priorities away from stability and national security to economic growth, we are skeptical of this view. Over the past 10 years, Xi has laid out his grand vision of the future of China and the blueprint of how to get there. For his incoming third 5-year term in the most powerful position in China, the general secretary of the CCP, we see no reason for him to change course or make substantial adjustments to the fundamental principles and strategies he has cultivated over the past decade. The Work Report will likely affirm Xi’s “holistic national security concept” in foreign policy, the “dual circulation” and “common prosperity” in the new development paradigm, and "Dynamic Zero-COVID" in pandemic control as the strategies going forward. 

The amendment of the party constitution and election of the members of the 20th Central Committee next Saturday, Oct 22

The 20th National Congress is scheduled to adjourn next Saturday, Oct 22.  On that day, the delegates will, among other things vote on the amendment to the CCP’s constitution.  Little is made known about the details of the proposed amendments but the general expectation is that the amendments will be about cementing further Xi’s core leadership position and the role of Xi Jinping’s thoughts in the CCP’s constitution.  The delegate will also vote on approving the Work Report. 

One of the highlights of the last day of the National Congress is for the 2,300 delegates to elect 205 full members and 171 alternate members to the 20th Central Committee who will in turn vote on who will get into the top leadership on the following day.

Deciding on the constituency of the Politburo and its Standing Committee, the Central Military Commission, and the Central Secretariat next Sunday, Oct 23

On Sunday, Oct 23, the newly elected 20th Central Committee will hold its 1st plenary session. In this session, the Central Committee will elect members to the CCP’s 25-member Politburo and its 7-member Standing Committee who will exercise the power of the Central Committee when the Central Committee is in recess. The Standing Committee of the Politburo will collectively reign over China in the coming five years. 

The Central Committee will also elect the General Secretary of the CCP, the members of the Central Secretariat, and the Central Military Commission and its Chairman. It is expected Xi will be elected to remain in his positions as General Secretary of the CCP and as Chairman of the Central Military Commission.

The state positions are not on the agenda of the CCP’s National Congress

The 20th National Congress is an event of the CCP, not of the state.  The state positions of the President of the People’s Republic of China, Premier and Vice Premiers of the State Council will not be decided in the 20th National Congress or the subsequent first plenary session of the 20th Central Committee.  The nomination of those positions will be decided in the 2nd plenary session of the 20th Central Committee which is expected to be held in February 2023 and the nomination will need to be taken to the National People’s Congress for approval in March 2023.

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
Beethovenstrasse 33
CH-8002
Zurich
Switzerland

Contact Saxo

Select region

Switzerland
Switzerland

All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law.

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.