Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
AEX 25 Index is close to testing the June low at 632. The support at 632 is strong and a bounce is likely to be seen. Divergence on RSI on both daily and weekly supports the rebound scenario. However, the trend is down and a close below could take the AEX Index to around 600 support.
BEL20 closed well below key support at 3,506 last week. There is no divergence on RSI Making new lows indicating lower levels on the Index is likely. Next key support is at around 3,235 close to the 0.618 retracement at 3,173. To reverse the down trend a close above 3,740.
CAC40 closed Friday a few points below key support at 5,786 testing March lows at 5,756. This morning buyers are trying to lift it back above. If CAC40 closes above 5,786 we could see further upside to towards 6.000.
However, the selling pressure could quickly resume sending CAC 40 lower. If closing below 5,755 there Is not support until around 5,392.