Head of Equity Strategy
Summary: Today's Footonomics is about Italy vs Turkey which are playing the opening match tonight in Rome on the old Olympic stadium. Italy wins on misery index, but in real life football one should never count out Turkey. On equities the match is between Enel and QNB Finansbank, which the Italian utility wins 2-1 on better equity fundamentals. Steen's and Peter's prediction is that Azzurri wins 3-1.
Match: Italy vs Turkey
Macro: The Italian job vs. Turkish Delight
As this is the first Footonomics, we will briefly describe our take on equities during the tournament. We have selected the largest publicly listed company on market capitalization for each country. Each company is scored on growth, valuation, and return on equity, and the combined fundamentals will decide the outcome of the match in equities. See the whole list of companies below. One thing to note is that the list is typical European dominated by boring value stocks. The only countries/companies that smell of the future and growth are ASML (Netherlands), Allegro.eu (Poland), and LVMH (France).
Equities: Enel vs QNB Finansbank
AI: The good, the bad, and the bubble
While a deep recession may not be iminent thanks to central bank policy, interest rates will have to stay high for longer, and this will be accompanied by volatility risk from the unwinding of bubbles, especially within AI.
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
The emergence of advanced AI systems is by far the most surprising event this year, turning everything upside down, while risks and benefits are debated. AI will also become an arms race between the US and China.
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
As China navigates global fragmentation, its cycle of technology application, productivity enhancement, and growth is threatened by US breakthroughs in generative AI, limited computing power, and geopolitical tensions.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
Japan’s expertise in semiconductors and robotic integration could be the foundation of AI dominance. Combining two of this year's themes, Japanese equities and artificial intelligence, brings a wave of opportunities.
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
The AI fever has turned the technology into a darling, pushing crypto further into no-man’s-land. There are striking similarities between AI and crypto, and if these are to come full circle, AI won't be spared for bubbles.
Mads Eberhardt,
Cryptocurrency Analyst
Stocks related to artificial intelligence (AI) have appeared on investors' radars. Expectations are high, but it may be necessary to consider how to get exposure to AI in a diversified way.
Hans Oudshoorn,
Trainer Academy
The USD is on its back foot as markets celebrate an eventual Fed rate peak and steady long US yields. The stakes are even higher for the Japanese yen if longer major sovereign yield curves have to price in economic acceleration.
John J. Hardy,
Head of FX Strategy
While commodities, broadly speaking, have faced some tough months, a partial reversal during June could signal that the asset class is getting back on its feet with energy holding up and precious metals with upside potential.
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
As inflation remains high central banks face hard decisions about whether they should keep hiking interest rates or stop. Meanwhile, the rise of AI creates bubble-like conditions that only make the decision harder.
Althea Spinozzi,
Senior Fixed Income Strategist
