Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Gold range bound after reaching 2K but points to much higher levels. Silver in steep trend closing in on strong resistance.
Gold/Silver ratio in big correction that could soon be over.
Gold seems range bound between 1,934 and 2,010 and a break out is needed for direction. If breaking out to the downside it is likely merely just be a correction down to 0.618 retracement at 1,883 before uptrend resumes.
If breaking out to the upside there is short-term potential to previous highs around 2,078 which is also the 1.764 projection of the last larger correction.
Medium-term there is also RSI divergence but Gold trend is up, and if weekly RSI breaks above its falling trendline the divergence is likely to be cancelled (traded out) and Gold set for higher levels.
Monthly chart i.e., medium- to longer term: No RSI divergence and is still showing positive sentiment and if RSI closes back above 60 threshold it is a strong indication we will see much higher prices in gold.
If Gold closes above 2,075 there is potential to 2,245 – 2,352.
For Gold to demolish and reverse this scenario a close below 1,800.
Gold is above the Ichimoku Cloud (shaded area) on both Daily and Weekly i.e., in a Bullish mode.
Silver in a steep rising trend with no RSI divergence suggesting Silver is to trade higher. A test of February peak at around 24.63 is likely before a correction.
Weekly RSI is positive and about to break back above 60 indicating higher Silver prices. A move to the strong resistance area 25.85-26.45 is in the cards. The latter level is also the 1.382 projection of the Q1 2023 correction. Positive weekly RSI and MACD about to turn bullish supports the Bullish Silver picture.
However, the bullish move could be a bit slow or sluggish, the 55 and 100 weekly MA’s are still declining whereas the 21 and the 200 MA’s are rising which is an indication of and underlying indecisive sentiment.
However, to reverse this bullish trend a close above 19.90 is needed.
Medium- to longer term. If Silver closes above 24.65 uptrend has been confirmed and previous peaks around 30 is likely to be tested. Resistance at around 26.95.
Silver is above the Cloud on both Daily and Weekly i.e., in a Bullish mode.
Gold/Silver ratio broke below its rising trendline after reaching 0.786 retracement at 91.80. The current decline could drop to the 0.618 retracement at 81.12 maybe dipping down to touch the support at around 80.61 before a rebound.
Medium-term. Weekly RSI still showing positive sentiment (needs to close below 40 threshold to reverse to negative) so if Silver bounces from the 0.618 retracement at 81.12 to resume uptrend Silver could be set for a test of the strong resistance at around 96.
But if Silver continues below 81 to close a week below 79 Silver is likely to test key strong support at around 74.57.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.