Technical Update - Gold and Silver set for higher levels but correction looming. Ratio correction could be over Technical Update - Gold and Silver set for higher levels but correction looming. Ratio correction could be over Technical Update - Gold and Silver set for higher levels but correction looming. Ratio correction could be over

Technical Update - Gold and Silver set for higher levels but correction looming. Ratio correction could be over

Commodities 4 minutes to read
KCL
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank

Summary:  Gold range bound after reaching 2K but points to much higher levels. Silver in steep trend closing in on strong resistance.
Gold/Silver ratio in big correction that could soon be over.


Gold seems range bound between 1,934 and 2,010 and a break out is needed for direction. If breaking out to the downside it is likely merely just be a correction down to 0.618 retracement at 1,883 before uptrend resumes.
If breaking out to the upside there is short-term potential to previous highs around 2,078 which is also the 1.764 projection of the last larger correction.

RSI is showing Divergence meaning the last highest close was not supported by a higher close on RSI which indicates a weakening of the trend and could suggest a larger correction for Gold.

Source all charts and data: Saxo Group

Medium-term there is also RSI divergence but Gold trend is up, and if weekly RSI breaks above its falling trendline the divergence is likely to be cancelled (traded out) and Gold set for higher levels.

Monthly chart i.e., medium- to longer term: No RSI divergence and is still showing positive sentiment and if RSI closes back above 60 threshold it is a strong indication we will see much higher prices in gold. 
If Gold closes above 2,075 there is potential to 2,245 – 2,352.

For Gold to demolish and reverse this scenario a close below 1,800.

Gold is above the Ichimoku Cloud (shaded area) on both Daily and Weekly i.e., in a Bullish mode.

Silver in a steep rising trend with no RSI divergence suggesting Silver is to trade higher. A test of February peak at around 24.63 is likely before a correction.

Weekly RSI is positive and about to break back above 60 indicating higher Silver prices. A move to the strong resistance area 25.85-26.45 is in the cards. The latter level is also the 1.382 projection of the Q1 2023 correction. Positive weekly RSI and MACD about to turn bullish supports the Bullish Silver picture.
However, the bullish move could be a bit slow or sluggish, the 55 and 100 weekly MA’s are still declining whereas the 21 and the 200 MA’s are rising which is an indication of and underlying indecisive sentiment.

However, to reverse this bullish trend a close above 19.90 is needed.

Medium- to longer term. If Silver closes above 24.65 uptrend has been confirmed and previous peaks around 30 is likely to be tested. Resistance at around 26.95.

Silver is above the Cloud on both Daily and Weekly i.e., in a Bullish mode. 

Gold/Silver ratio broke below its rising trendline after reaching 0.786 retracement at 91.80. The current decline could drop to the 0.618 retracement at 81.12 maybe dipping down to touch the support at around 80.61 before a rebound.

Medium-term. Weekly RSI still showing positive sentiment (needs to close below 40 threshold to reverse to negative) so if Silver bounces from the 0.618 retracement at 81.12 to resume uptrend Silver could be set for a test of the strong resistance at around 96.
But if Silver continues below 81 to close a week below 79 Silver is likely to test key strong support at around 74.57.

Disclaimer

The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-hk/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo or its affiliates.

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited
19th Floor
Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower
12 Queen’s Road Central
Hong Kong

Contact Saxo

Select region

Hong Kong S.A.R
Hong Kong S.A.R

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited (“Saxo”) is a company authorised and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. Saxo holds a Type 1 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Securities); Type 2 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Futures Contract); Type 3 Regulated Activity (Leveraged Foreign Exchange Trading); Type 4 Regulated Activity (Advising on Securities) and Type 9 Regulated Activity (Asset Management) licenses (CE No. AVD061). Registered address: 19th Floor, Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower, 12 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. Please click here to view the relevant risk disclosure statements.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-hk/about-us/awards.

The information or the products and services referred to on this site may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and services offered on this website are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity residing in the United States and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.