Spanish storm may make gold sparkle
Short Term / Buy
Chief Economist & CIO
Price Target: 1365 (1400)
Market Price: 1305
Gold: We are entering a long XAUUSD here with a stop loss below 1280.
An alternative strategy could be to wait for break of 1308.00 – the 200-day simple moving average – where we suspect renewed hedge fund interest will emerge considering that positioning is at ten month low at present.
Target: 1365, then 1400
Time Horizon: Short to Medium Term
1. If Spain also becomes an issue we will see contagion which should leave gold the only real safe haven at a time when a flood of data is providing more and more confirmation of an economic slowdown (China RRR cut, Credit Impulse, Monetary Aggregates, central bank balances).
2. Italy is a slow burning fuse which will continue to play a role with Iran and Turkey joining the cocktail of uncertainty.
3. US data has been very poor of late (plus our expected incoming slowdown).
4. We think cycle top is in for US Treasury yields. Fed Bullard’s 1st sign and how the position shift hurt old timers like Bill Grossindicates that more pain is coming
Focus this afternoon will move to Spain and the debate prior to Friday's no-confidence vote in Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy. The market will also be looking ahead to the US non-farm payrolls tomorrow.
The vote will again depend on the Basque Nationalist's five votes, and after the “surprising support” for the budget last week (which was given after getting concessions on pensions) it’s very much up in the air.
The FT says there is political agreement to oust Rajoy, but little consensus as to how.
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.