Macro Dragon: FinTech Weds, Tesla, No Grazie & Equities Down..

Macro Dragon: FinTech Weds, Tesla, No Grazie & Equities Down..

Macro 4 minutes to read
Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist

Summary:  Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.


(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)

Macro Dragon: FinTech Weds, Tesla, No Grazie & Equities Down...

 

Saxo’s 7th Annual SG FinTech Conference. Fintech Unfiltered: Looking beyond the Covid-19 Storm

 

Rollcall

  • US Jobless: Dembik touching on Unemployment matters more than you think

  • The number of analysis pointing out that the U.S. labor market continues recovering has been quite astounding in light of the August non-farm payrolls report. We don't share this optimistic view about the U.S. economy. We have done some data-crunching and have reached a totally different conclusion.

  • Italian Govies: One of our very own stars, bond specialist Althea Spinozzi is back after a well-deserved maternity leave (apparently the little trooper is already trading in day care, talking about this being priced richly vs that, relative value strategy already!).

  • Althea has published a piece on Italian sovereigns, that is so hot out the oven, that even KVP has not yet read it. For our VIPs with an interest in bonds as an asset class to trade, as well as allocate to strategically – please feel free to reach out in regards to having a call with Super Spinozzi.

  • Recession, economic stagnation and an unstable Italian government are some of the reasons why one shouldn't be happy to hold BTPs at record low yields. As volatility remains high, it is crucial to take a short-term stance on these instruments and actively trade them.

  • Softbank: In case you missed the SaxoStrat’s take on Softbank, heard those WeWorks are amazing to work out of: The new world of SoftBank Group and retail options trading

 

Markets – Quick Comment…

  • Tesla $330 -21%: So looks like amidst the continued pullback in US equities o/n, that saw the S&P & Nas-100, retrace by -2.4% to 3,333 & -4.8% to 11,068, saw Tesla drop by a 1/5th of its market cap. Even for a stock as volatile as Tesla, that is c. 6 standard deviations.
  • Rationale on the drop seems to be linked to the news that Tesla will not make the cut into the S&P 500 this time around (no doubt a big contribution to the massive run we’ve seen in the name over the last few wks, as it had popped c. +74% for the month of Aug).
  • Oh & for those of you thinking, price of $330, wasn’t this puppy above $2000 just a few wks back?
  • Yep, yep… but they had a 5 for 1 stock split (bullish signal generally speaking) whilst KVP was on studycation. Interesting thing is the timing, as on Sep 1st they had announced a $5bn additional raise that was completed on Sep 4th. Say what you want about Musk (my African cousin), but there is timing & there is TIMING. For context, Tesla shed c. $83bn of market cap yest, their five yards of capital raised was c. 6% of that!
  • From a chart perspective, the ATH is now 502.49, so we are c. -35% from that. Just for context, TSLA was down c. -63% during the Feb-Mar sell-off earlier this year. So we have pulled back more than half of that.
  • If one takes a step back on a daily 1yr chart & looks at Fibo & MA lvls, a few things are worth noting.
  • We are south of the 38.2% retracement lvl from the highs (using the wkly low in Mar for the bottom of the Fibo measure) lvl of 337.32. The next big lvl of support from a fibo view is the 286.12, 50% retracement. After which you run into the 100DMA of $250 & the 200DMA of 180.

     

  • One thing to note, if the sell-off yest was really linked to Tesla not making the S&P 500… then the volume o/n whilst large, was not much bigger than on a few previous volume days. C. 115.5m shares were traded, vs. the 6m avg. Of 79.5m, yet over the last 3wks Tesla has had 8 days, where shares traded were over 100m. Again if your thesis on the name is about the S&P inclusion now being at the very least delayed, then it’s a function of how much of the money going into Tesla for the inclusion play is tactical & short-term, very strategic & long-term?
  • From KVP’s standpoint, the convexity in the name is to the upside. Yet obviously timing around that will be a function of the market & one’s view on the whole “S&P inclusion theme”, i.e. whats your estimate of that being a driver of the name this year vs. the micro around the company’s developments & progress, plus of course the backdrop of the Goliath liquidity regime that we are going to be in for a while.
  • It looks like an ‘easy” jump on name, if/when we get a strong bullish market bounce (say on new stimulus bill being passed), one need not be the first one through the door.
  • Their next earnings release seems to be scheduled for Oct 23.

    -

    Start-to-End = Gratitude + Integrity + Vision + Tenacity. Process > Outcome. Sizing > Idea.

    This is the way 

    KVP

    Quarterly Outlook

    01 /

    • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

      Quarterly Outlook

      Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

      Althea Spinozzi

      Head of Fixed Income Strategy

    • Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

      Quarterly Outlook

      Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

      Peter Garnry

      Chief Investment Strategist

      After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto...
    • FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

      Quarterly Outlook

      FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

      Charu Chanana

      Chief Investment Strategist

      As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...
    • Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

      Quarterly Outlook

      Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

      Peter Garnry

      Chief Investment Strategist

      The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c...
    • Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

      Quarterly Outlook

      Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

      Ole Hansen

      Head of Commodity Strategy

    • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

      Quarterly Outlook

      FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

      Charu Chanana

      Chief Investment Strategist

      Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo...
    • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

      Quarterly Outlook

      Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

      Peter Garnry

      Chief Investment Strategist

      Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami...
    • Macro: Sandcastle economics

      Quarterly Outlook

      Macro: Sandcastle economics

      Peter Garnry

      Chief Investment Strategist

      Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p...
    • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

      Quarterly Outlook

      Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

      Althea Spinozzi

      Head of Fixed Income Strategy

      Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ...
    • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

      Quarterly Outlook

      Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

      Ole Hansen

      Head of Commodity Strategy

      Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...
    Disclaimer

    Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/.

    The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service. Access and use of Saxo News & Research and any Saxo Bank Group website are subject to (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; and (iii) the Risk Warning in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group.

    Saxo News & Research is provided for informational purposes, does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. No Saxo Bank Group entity shall be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information on Saxo News & Research.

    To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, such content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication.

    None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments.Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Capital Markets or its affiliates.

    Please read our disclaimers:
    - Full Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
    - Analysis Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/analysis-disclaimer/saxo-analysis-disclaimer)
    - Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)

    Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited
    Suite 1, Level 14, 9 Castlereagh St
    Sydney NSW 2000
    Australia

    Contact Saxo

    Select region

    Australia
    Australia

    The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-au/about-us/awards

    Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited ABN 32 110 128 286 AFSL 280372 (‘Saxo’ or ‘Saxo Capital Markets’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms, Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

    Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Saxo Capital Markets does not provide ‘personal’ financial product advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. The Target Market Determination should assist you in determining whether any of the products or services we offer are likely to be consistent with your objectives, financial situation and needs.

    Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

    The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan.

    Please click here to view our full disclaimer.