Macro Dragon: Trump vs. Biden + Watch the PMIs + EZ Banking Sector... Macro Dragon: Trump vs. Biden + Watch the PMIs + EZ Banking Sector... Macro Dragon: Trump vs. Biden + Watch the PMIs + EZ Banking Sector...

Macro Dragon: Trump vs. Biden + Watch the PMIs + EZ Banking Sector...

Macro 2 minutes to read
Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist

Summary:  Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.

(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)

Macro Dragon: Trump vs. Biden + Watch the PMIs + EZ Banking Sector...


Top of Mind…

  • We covered the busy wk + month/quarter end on yest WK # 40... End of 3Q, Supreme Court Nominations , 1st US Presidential Debates + Trumps Tax Returns

  • Over the next 24-48hrs, news headlines are likely going to be reeling with the takeaways from the 1st of three US presidential debates.

  • The first goes down tonight US time at 21:30 ET, which should be Wed morning 09:30 SGT

  • Likely consensus take is Trump will make a fool of Biden, yet lets see if Biden comes out swinging… in addition to recent tax news courtesy of the NYT… Trump does have the deaths of +210,000 Americans, c. 20% of confirmed Covid-19 deaths globally… with a laundry list of evidence that Trump knew about the virus long before acknowledging it – let alone finally acknowledging how serious it was, i.e. pulling a complete 180 later… which is not unusual... yet this cost lives... there are families attached to each of those deaths 

  • Yet, its never about the facts in US politics… its about ‘The Spin’… & Trump is a master of Spin

  • If KVP was in Trumps’s corner, it would be keep it simple with ‘Creepy Joe’… get under his skin… attack his son… bring up Ukraine… attack his nomination of Harris… ignore his jabs & just be Teflon Don Trump

  • If KVP was in Biden’s corner, be ultra-aggressive & strong from start to finish, take no prisoners & don’t get baited by Trump (don’t play the rolling with pigs in the mud game)…

  • Go after Trump on where his ego is super fragile… attack his numerous business failures (i.e. not the stunning success he makes out to be) & personal net worth, Trump being fully responsible for the death of +210K so far!, not to mention 100s of billions in economic damage from the US having close to a full two months to act but was living in “Trump land” (i.e. is it a coincidence that a mere 4-5 days after the phase one deal was signed in January, the world heard about the outbreak in China) & the fact that most minimum wage American tax payers have paid more taxes than Trump ever has*

  • *Again, it’s not about facts, it all about spin… yet here you have to spin, the spin doctor…

  • It will be interesting to see how/if the polls & odds change on the either’s chances post the debate. At the very least the Dem’s can rest knowing that on Thu 8 Oct VP Debate, Harris is going to cut through Pence, like Dick Cheney going after oil in Iraq! It is not going to be pretty.

  • Another key event this wk, yet due on Thu will be global PMIs – as we are getting to the point where, if we don’t see further stimulus arrive over the next 1-2months, we could see a deterioration the strong bounce that we have had in global PMIs since the lows of the 1H20

  • Whilst US flash mfg. PMIs had ticked up last wk at 53.5a/e vs. the previous 53.1, its really all about services which had a slight miss at 54.6a 54.7e, yet trending lower from Aug’s 55.0p

  • The ISM mfg. also due on Thu is set for 56.4e 56.0p, with the key services ISM due next wk at 56.1e 56.9p (again trending lower). Key focus is likely going to be new orders & prices paid, also due this Thu 1st of Oct

  • In the EZ, its even more worrying as a number of countries are experiencing a ramp up in a 2nd wave & are putting through restrictive measures on their populace & economies.

  • So whilst the flash Mfg beat strongly at 53.7a 51.9e 51.7p – really German driven as the local German flash mfg PMI was 56.6a 52.5e 52.2p – services flash PMIs not only missed but dropped back into contraction territory not seen since June at 47.6a 50.6e 50.5p

  • Whilst we are still debating the fiscal drawdown of the initial relief package in the EZ, we are likely going to be needing another one before the year is out… once again, expect the charge (if there is one) to be led by ECB’s Lagarde… or not at all. On the Fiscal side, it could once again fall to Germany… yet whether they will be pushed to act this year or wait until 2021 remains to be seen

  • Keep a look out for our EZ Bank focused equity & bond themes coming out of Peter Garnry & Althea Spinozzi later today. We have continued to make new lows in EuroStoxx banks… & for context that means lower than during the 2011-2012 EZ Crisis & the 2008 financial crisis! KVP thinks that at some point, the ECB will have to underwrite the EZ banking system, at the very least going from tacit to explicit…



On The Radar Today…

  • JP: Core CPI YoY -0.2%a -0.3%e/p, BoJ Summary of Opinions
  • EZ: GER + SP Flash CPIs, IT Bond Auction

  • UK: Money Supply, Mortgage Approvals, Net Lending

  • CA: Housing Prices

  • US: Goods Trade Balance, Wholesale Inventories, Williams @ 2115 SGT, Harker @ 2130 SGT, Clarida @ 23:40 SGT

    1st US Presidential Debate @ 21:00 ET, please keep a look out for Eleanor Creagh cut of the upcoming match – because it sure as hell, is likely o be the furthest thing from a debate.


Dragon’s Must Reads…

  • We keep hearing about “K”, catch the latest Steen’s Chronicle: Beware the implications of the K-Shape future (hint more divergence than we have seen so far!)

    Why the letter K defines society, economics, politics and markets - plus how this new macro model impact the construction of your portfolio going forward.

  • For the equity & equity tech fans - Eleanor Creagh highlighting Ant Group to join IPO rush

    Ant Group, China's dominant mobile payments firm, are set to dominate the listed fintech space with their upcoming, humongous, record setting IPO. The Chinese fintech company founded by former Alibaba Group Holding (BABA) Executive Chairman Jack Ma operates the e-commerce giant's Alipay payment service and could be the largest IPO ever when it dual-lists on the Hong Kong and Shanghai's Nasdaq-style STAR Market exchanges later this year.

  • John Hardy dropping a roadmap US Election Primer: The Final Sprint to November 3rd

    We sort through important dates in this final sprint phase of the absurdly long US presidential election cycle. Historically, we have seen significant shifts in the polling in the final weeks leading up to the election. As well, we consider factors that can change the odds between now and Election Day on November 3rd.

  • Saxo’s US Election Cheat Sheet Which cuts into the three potential pathways into the elections, probabilities around them, as well as short & long-term positions across equities, bonds, commodities & currencies.  


    Start-to-End = Gratitude + Integrity + Vision + Tenacity  | Process > Outcome | Sizing > Idea.

    This is the way 



    Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at

    The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service. Access and use of Saxo News & Research and any Saxo Bank Group website are subject to (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; and (iii) the Risk Warning in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group.

    Saxo News & Research is provided for informational purposes, does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. No Saxo Bank Group entity shall be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information on Saxo News & Research.

    To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, such content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication.

    None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments.Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Capital Markets or its affiliates.

    Please read our disclaimers:
    - Full Disclaimer (
    - Analysis Disclaimer (
    - Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (

    Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited
    Suite 1, Level 14, 9 Castlereagh St
    Sydney NSW 2000

    Contact Saxo

    Select region


    The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit

    Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited ABN 32 110 128 286 AFSL 280372 (‘Saxo’ or ‘Saxo Capital Markets’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms, Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

    Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Saxo Capital Markets does not provide ‘personal’ financial product advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. The Target Market Determination should assist you in determining whether any of the products or services we offer are likely to be consistent with your objectives, financial situation and needs.

    Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

    The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan.

    Please click here to view our full disclaimer.