Global Macro Strategist
Summary: The weeks focus will be post Fed and BoC digestion, as well as RBA and BoE on the horizon. ISM Services from the US will be key, as will final PMIs out of EZ. Also look out for Lagarde speaking with the ECB governor's crown - will she set the bell curve for monetary policy in the EZ block. Cuts meanwhile are to be expected out of Thailand and Malaysia.
(Note that these are solely the views & opinions of KVP & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations)
2019-Nov-04
A replay of the call is available HERE
TGIM & Happy Macro Monday everyone, hope everyone had a great wkd & for the Global Rugby watchers out there Congrats to the new Champions South Africa, as well as great effort by England & New Zealand.
We really have only 6 wks left to mid Dec, before folks start switching off their computer screens, putting down their phones & letting their twitter handles cool off (most folks at least, pretty sure Trump will tweet through Dec!)
This wk is still post digestion of the Fed’s one & done from last wk, we are now sitting with 13.5% prob of a cut for the Dec 11 meeting. And even going to 16 Dec 2020, that is c. 77%. At the same time, the global growth continues to fall, which would suggest to KVP that at some point Fed will need a few more ‘insurance cuts’ Also remember 2020 for the Fed is a half-life year, given US 2020 Nov elections. We covered the Fed & BoC decision last wk on our cross-asset brief, this also included links to statement & press conference replays
Speaking of 2020, note how no one is really talking about Biden anymore? Seems to be Warren, Sander or Buddah Buttigieg… - at least in Iowa. Still early days, would expect the likes of Harris, Yang & Booker to drop out… still early days to Jul 2020 nomination
Wishing everyone a great wk ahead.
Namaste
-KVP
**
Summary of Prior Week:
COT Report: [@Ole_S_Hansen]
Week Ahead
Key Focus:
Central Banks (SGT):
FOMC Speakers (SGT):
Other (SGT):
Econ Data:
Chartography & Price Action
From Home.Saxo
Jakobsen on all things brexit: The UK General Election Finally Agreed, Brexit Not So Much
Hansen's latest commodity focus: Crude Oil
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
