Macro Dragon: Biden folding like a deck of cards...

Macro 2 minutes to read

Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist

Summary:  Macro Dragon touched on US elections & eminent New Hampshire results - once again looking like Bernie & Peter-B shows, yet The Bern comfortably ahead on the suggested polls. Biden should likely go home, after heading to South Carolina early with no doubt another poor standing in NH. Meanwhile recovery rate in China getting above 4000, as the death rate gets to +1,100 & infected cases at c. 45,000. Meanwhile internationally, Japan continues to lead the charts, with +29 more infected on the cruise ship/s. And HK gets to 49 post a +7 increase from our Tue's Macro Dragon.


(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)

2020-Feb-12

 

Macro Dragon: Biden folding like a deck of cards...

First Iowa, now New Hampshire, Next South Carolina…

  • Likely the two most interesting things as we get to the final months to days (depending on the candidate) on the pathway to Democratic Nominee that is due in July are around Biden & Peter-B
  • Biden’s abysmal performance not just in Iowa (he was lucky that the process was such a fiasco), yet also news that he has left New Hampshire early to get to South Carolina – i.e. he knows he is not going to be doing well in NH. To KVP “sleepy Joe” is done, call it stake in the heart, call it the family corruption allegations (& to be honest some pretty clear cut & public relationships & “business” dealings that are questionable at best), call it him trying to ride on Obi’s coattails too much, the game is over the player just does not know it yet. Biden feels that the American voters of African heritage will be one of the key edges that he has, as the primaries move South – if he does not dominate & take South Carolina, it would be the paragon of burning money & time were he to continue, with Biden likely crippled beyond repair. Bloomberg is likely best poised to benefit from this – yet we still have to wait until Super Tue, Mar 3 before he fully joins the circus.
  • Peter Buttigieg & Amy Klobuchar (KVP had to look her up) are getting their 15min of shine – whilst they will likely do well in NH. The question is how well will they do post Iowa & New Hampshire. KVP is still on team “Feel the Bern” simply on the thesis that to beat crazy (or try), you need crazier! Which is another way of saying, very highly motivated voters. Still early days & a lot can still play out over the next few months, it does look like Bernie will take NH – hopefully with no recounts & delayed results.  
  • Its worth noting the turnout in Iowa was no higher than it was in 2016 as whole – so whether this is a sign of people’s bark having little bite, remains to be seen. At the end of the day, if the economy is doing well & people are doing well – then its about pragmatism & less about the ethical or non-ethical conduct of the commander in chief. I.e. Do not fall for the ethics fallacy (good or right), people do this in politics all the time. Do you know what group tends to be very pragmatic? Minorities. There is an old cliché that minorities always vote democrat – would not be too sure as we get to the big Nov 3 date.
  • The Macro Dragon sometimes ponders if pragmatism is inversely correlated to how well countries, societies & people within those societies are doing. With that in mind Andrew Yang a.k.a. “yang-gang” has dropped out of the race, he was way more pragmatic & realistic than most in his plans for the US – KVP loved his “Freedom dividend”.
  • Not being a believer in the hocus pocus fluff that is “MMT”, but more because there is likely way any stable society of the future will be able to function without a form of freedom dividend. When it comes to everyone in society needing to (as well as able to) work for a living, the future will show that history was an aberration.
  • Perhaps there is no market for pragmatism in today’s politics, people literally want to be lied to – by which KVP is inferring, just because you are hearing what you want to hear (a “solution” with no thought/skin-in-the-game to the potential consequences of that potential solution), does not make it the truth nor right.  
  • The optimal future of Politics in the Macro Dragon’s mind?
  • Take the human element out (like yesterday!) – add a healthy dose of the AI/ML element in. The first country that understands this, will gain a competitive edge like no other. At the end of the day, that course & theme is likely the best hope for the future of humanity. As a species, Sapiens have evolved to play with sticks & stones – not 2nd, 3rd & potential final derivative consequences of say Nuclear Warfare & very real climate crisis.
  • All we seem to do nowadays is push buttons & stare at screens all day. How is that for evolution? Just another segment of the Ape species pushing buttons all day.
  • Are you using technology or is technology using you?   

2019-nCoV Update Wed Asia Mrn 12 Feb & Thoughts…

 

Quick update & thoughts on the Virus since the Yest’s check in:

  • As of this Wed 12 Asia morning, the China figures we are getting are at c. 45,000 confirmed cases, +1100 deaths & +4,400 recovered.  
  • Powell also commented o/n during his two day testimony to the US senate: “We are closely monitoring the emergence of the coronavirus, which could lead to disruptions in China that spill over to the rest of the global economy.”   

Outside of China the countries with confirmed cases over 10 are:

  • Japan now at 202 (174 from the cruise ship +29)
  • Hong Kong 49 (+7)
  • Singapore 47 (+2)
  • Thailand 33 (+1)
  • South Korea 28 +(1)
  • Taiwan 18
  • Malaysia 18
  • Germany 16 (+2)
  • Australia 15
  • Vietnam 15 (+1)
  • United States 12 (+1)
  • France 11
  • Macau 10

    -

     

    Have a fantastic, gratitude & abundant filled wk ahead everyone, stay healthy as well as keep your mind open to profitable & abundant opportunities. Life happens for us, not to us.  


    Namaste,

    -KVP

    -

    Some Anchor Pieces from #SaxoStrats:

    Disclaimer

    Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Pty Ltd prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Combined Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/.

    The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service. Access and use of Saxo News & Research and any Saxo Bank Group website are subject to (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; and (iii) the Risk Warning in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group.

    Saxo News & Research is provided for informational purposes, does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. No Saxo Bank Group entity shall be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information on Saxo News & Research.

    To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, such content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication.

    Please read our disclaimers:
    - Full Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
    - Analysis Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/analysis-disclaimer/saxo-analysis-disclaimer)
    - Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)

    The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-au/about-us/awards

    Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Pty Ltd ABN 32 110 128 286 AFSL 280372 (‘Saxo’ or ‘Saxo Capital Markets’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms, Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

    Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products such as CFDs and Margin FX products may result in your losses surpassing your initial deposits. Saxo Capital Markets does not provide ‘personal’ financial product advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation.

    Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

    The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan.
    Please click here to view our full disclaimer.