Macro Dragon: The Number One Head Band... Macro Dragon: The Number One Head Band... Macro Dragon: The Number One Head Band...

Macro Dragon: The Number One Head Band...

Macro 2 minutes to read
Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist

Summary:  Macro Dragon = Daily Cross-Asset Global Views

Today we touch on what it takes to wear the coveted Number One Head Band. As well as check in on the DollarYen break-out higher that is in progress, a higher USDPHP & the Swiss franc


(Note that these are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations.)

 

2020-Jan-17

Macro Dragon: The Number One Headband

Before we get into it, for those that are back – or on the way back in – from what was hopefully a restful year-end holiday break, Happy New Years!

Let me sincerely (hand on liver) wish you, your families & teams the best of 2020. May your health, vigor & experiences be excellent & full of fun + laughter. May you continue to grow & develop yourself. May you be awash in gratitude & contribution plus fall [tail] backward into more money than Bezos.

We’ll be shaking things up from KVP’s side, so expect a lot more trade views going forward, as well as 20 long-term trades views for 2020 – which KVP will do a special piece & mini-series on.

Remember it’s a long wkd in the US with MLK Monday

Ok let’s get after it…



The Number One Head Band…

If your into your Manga & pop art/creativity, then you have to check out Afro Samurai – its likely about as underrated / unheard of as they come. Your main man, Samuel L. Jackson does one of the key voices

Its basically about fighters, different warriors of different styles who duke it out, all in the quest of getting the revered, Number One Head Band

It’s a framework & story that actually fits very well with trading, every legit trader KVP has come across wants to be the number 1 trader – wear the Number One Head Band

In many ways the market, through the magnitude of your wins vs the magnitude of your losses, is a sequence of infinite duals – your dead when you blow up & run out of capital

Most people with a deep love for their craft, wants to be the number one at their craft – whether or not they explicitly are aware of this is another thing (i.e. lot of social bias & programming has gone into this… not to mention just basic primal DNA code… rise to the top of the pack)

The paradox about getting the Number Head Band is, you don’t get it by beating & defeating everyone else – it seems like that’s how you get it & that’s a fluffier narrative.

You need to become deserving of it, by beating & defeating yourself. The opponent / competition is not the market/game or other players in the market/game. The competition  / opponent is yourself.

We are ingrained to emulate others & in many ways its how we start to learn from when we are born.

Yet if you look at the GOATs of their craft, at some point they transitioned from doing others to doing themselves.

That plus relentless & insane passion for their craft (process > outcome), as well as seizing opportunity when it comes (capitalize on luck, that you create), gets them to that demigod status.

Is it a challenge?

Of course especially as we are also programmed to conform, to be consensus to fit into society to stay in our comfort zones.

Yet is it worth it?

Ha! Absolutely!

Try firing up the G6 for an all-boys or girls trip to Vegas/Hawaii for worth it.

So question is, what systematic framework, process & strategy are you implementing in 2020 to be deserving of your Number One Head Band?      



Low touch on markets…

Was gonna pass on talking directly on markets today (Fri yawn), yet could not help it.

If you caught our Macro Dragon on ze yen earlier this wk: DollarYen Technicals Screaming “Buy, Buy, Buy, Buy…”  You’ll realize how important these 110 lvls are on USDJPY. We had UST’s pop back above 1.80… to 1.83 o/n which lead to yes… +0.24% life in DollarYen which is now 110.25. A weekly close above 110.00 is technically very bullish – KVP does not feel a lot of people are in on this potential big breakout higher… in fact he knows of only one person, lets call them..

Our long tactical long USDPHP continues to grind up – early days – even though it seems like the Taal Volcano (original catalyst & thesis on potential peso flight) whilst still at lvl 4, is quieting down somewhat. Sometimes there are trade views that work out for other things other than the original thesis…

USDPHP is 50.913 +0.17% this Asia Fri morning, post o/n +0.18% to 50.828 (3rd cons. Up day). On Mon we opened at c. 50.53 then traded down to the lows of the weak at 50.32, before turning to higher highs – KVP would put in trailing stops into this puppy now… at the very least starting from entry point.  

Here is ze original Macro Dragon take on 13 Mon 20: Volcano Eruption South of Manilla Could See Philippine Peso Flight Overall is it just KVP, or does it feel like we could get a very surprising move higher in the US Dollar, before once again trying to technically breakdown – one thing that is not consensus, is one again a stronger USD for 2020, alongside the usual US outperforms vs. RoW – AGAIN!

Once again spend some time on the Swiss franc, we flagged Hardy’s EURCHF short view on this on yest’s Macro Dragon – KVP’s Deadpool’s instincts are more skewed towards looking for a reason to play a super tactical (short-term) reversal & squeeze on the EURCHF shorts – yet it likely more to be positional than anything else… sometimes part of the game is playing the players.

Overall KVP personally feels late to the long CHF trade (short EURCHF, USDCHF) & move, yet hard to see how we don’t gun for 1.05 possibly 1.03 within a week or two – the chart is Quasimodo!

Still likely to include one touches at 1.03 for the 20-4-2020 piece, even though tactically we are looking to be inverse our strategic view.

-

Good luck out there today & have an incredible StrongEnd – note the long wkd in the US, given  that most people should be out on MLK Mon. So keep that into account, as well as Chinese New Year being last wk of Jan.

Next wk we got: Davos (Sustainability/Climate Focus – check EC’s piece below), BoJ, ECB, BoC, BNM, BI, Norges Bank, IT local elections, More dissing & noise around Trump Impeachment + Phase One implementation. 

Wishing everyone a great, profitable start to the year. Best of luck in 2020, may it be your most magnificent yet  

Namaste,

-KVP



**

On The Radar Today:

(Times would be SGT)

  • NZ: Mfg. Index 49.3a 51.2p (previous 2 prints > 50, prior to that 3 sub 50)
  • CH: GDP +6.0%e/p, Monthly FAI, RS & IP, U/R  
  • EZ: Final CPI & Core 1.3%e/p for both, CA
  • US: Capacity Utilization, Industrial Production, Jolts, FOMC’s Harker @ 22:00
  • UK: Inflation 1.5%e/p CORE 1.7%e/p, House Prices   

-

Anchor & Key Structural Pieces from SaxoStrats:

 

Disclaimer

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/.

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service. Access and use of Saxo News & Research and any Saxo Bank Group website are subject to (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; and (iii) the Risk Warning in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group.

Saxo News & Research is provided for informational purposes, does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. No Saxo Bank Group entity shall be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information on Saxo News & Research.

To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, such content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication.

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments.Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Capital Markets or its affiliates.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Full Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
- Analysis Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/analysis-disclaimer/saxo-analysis-disclaimer)
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited
Suite 1, Level 14, 9 Castlereagh St
Sydney NSW 2000
Australia

Contact Saxo

Select region

Australia
Australia

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-au/about-us/awards

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited ABN 32 110 128 286 AFSL 280372 (‘Saxo’ or ‘Saxo Capital Markets’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms, Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Saxo Capital Markets does not provide ‘personal’ financial product advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. The Target Market Determination should assist you in determining whether any of the products or services we offer are likely to be consistent with your objectives, financial situation and needs.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan.

Please click here to view our full disclaimer.