APAC Global Macro Morning Brief – Happy Macro Wed 16 Oct 2019: The day could get ugly for bulls & beautiful for bears...
Summary: Morning APAC Global Macro & Cross-Asset Snapshot
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Happy Macro Wed 16 Oct 2019
APAC Global Macro Morning Brief – The day could get ugly for bulls & beautiful for bears...
Again, the whole “Here We Go Again” seems applicable on a daily basis in the cross-asset & geographic agnostic world of Global Macro Investing…
I was wondering why I was running so late this morning, yet as Master Oogway wisely said “there are no accidents”. (good adage to keep in mind for how we position our portfolios, allocate our investments & more importantly live our lives)
Yet it now all seems linked to some news that has just come out this Asia Weds morning.
After a positive o/n session that saw US equities close up +1.0% with the S&P at 2996, we are now down c. -0.20% in the Asia session on what could be a big monkey wrench in Trump's "art of the deal".
It looks like congress may be looking to pass a Hong Kong bill that could include sanctions on HK & perhaps CH officials, & especially most alarmingly - If you are HK based & have exposure to not just equities but property - to HK’s special trading status – this is all linked to the demonstrators on the street.
Once again, rule number one of momentum, the next move is likely in the direction of the last move. The situation in HK almost certainly gets worse before it gets better. And its also likely to be one of those situations where the adage be careful what you wish for, comes to mind.
Going back to the US, one of the few points of common ground between the two parties is on being tougher on China – so there could be support in both the house & senate here - the threat is real.
Whilst anything is always possible, hard to see how a bill on HK could come into fruition, whilst on a parallel stream Trump still manages to do a deal with Xi.
I am very surprised that Nikkei futures 22500 are still up +1.4% & DollarYen 108.65 is only down -18bp
This is likely to be a very bearish day…
Usual suspects… Gold, Silver, JPY, CHF & bond futures to lift…
Equity futures & the likes of AUD & NZD on the backfoot… again caveat in all this…
It’s a headline market… so stay close to the screens if you are doing anything tactical.
For the long-term investors, you can get back to reading your papers, resorts & bottoms up research… you are all gonna live even longer than the rest of us
Hang Seng open could get ugly, currently futures looking down c. -3% before the local 09:30 open
Good luck out there… stay profitable
- UK: CPI & PPI, Carney speaking at 21:00 SGT/HKT (09:00ET)
- EZ: Final CPI 0.9%e CORE 1.0%e, TB, Bond auction (30yr)
- CA: CPI
- US: Retail Sales, Business Inventories, Beige Book
- To catch this wk’s Macro Monday Click here… & replay of the call here
- Don’t forget to bookmark & check our Daily SaxoStrats calls from the European morning session c. 09:00 CET
- Our latest Quarterly Outlook: Taking Down The Killer Dollar
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
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Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.