Back to normal for the French economy
In a way, France’s growth is back to a more normal level taking in consideration its economic fundamentals and its level of potential growth, which is estimated at 1.25% by the Treasury for the period 2017-2020. Basically, a key problem of the French economy is that its recovery was slightly desynchronised with the global economic cycle. It started later than in most European countries and, thus, might be shorter since France will be hit at the same time that the other countries when the next downturn, that could take place in 2020 in the US, will happen.
From 2019, France will face major headwinds: lower global trade, as indicated by leading indicators, such as YoY South Korean exports, and likely higher oil prices as a consequence of under-investment in this sector in recent years. To sum up, France’s optimism that emerged one year ago did not last long. Unfortunately, France's World Cup win will not bring any support to growth.