Chart of the Week: The “exponential” second wave of COVID-19 in France explained

Macro
Christopher Dembik

Summary:  Our 'Macro Chartmania' series collects Macrobond data and focuses on a single chart chosen for its relevance.


Click here to download this week's full edition of Macro Chartmania.

In today’s edition, we have done some data crunching about COVID-19 numbers in France in order to better understand the risk of second wave and its potential impact on the economy. France is one of the European countries that has been in the spotlight recently due to the strong increase in new COVID-19 cases. In the space of one week, the official daily count of new cases has almost doubled to reach 5,413 and the daily number of new identified clusters has also almost doubled to 40 (as of yesterday). The sharp increase is also confirmed if we look at the 7-day moving average. The number of new cases is at 4,932 versus 3,211 one week ago. Health authorities are now talking about “exponential” second wave of the virus and new social distancing measures have been implemented, such as mandatory mask-wearing in all public spaces (indoors and outdoors) in the biggest cities and compulsory mask-wearing in workplace everywhere in France, as of Sept. 1 (with some exceptions to the rule).

However, contrary to the situation that prevailed in late March/April, the number of fatalities is almost close to zero (13 fatalities as of August 29 vs around 1,000 at the height of the crisis) and new hospital and intensive care unit (ICU) entries are still very limited. At the height of the crisis, the number of patients in intensive care was above 7,000 versus less than 400 nowadays. To some extent, the situation is a little incongruous: we are in the midst of a massive pandemic but hospitals are basically empty. Let’s dig into data. The surge in new cases, which is considered as “exponential”, is certainly partially the result of increased testing. On a weekly basis, the government is currently running about 800,000 tests and wants to reach the threshold of 1,000,000 per week shortly. Another explanation is that young adults, which represent a growing number of new cases but are more resilient than older people, are less vigilant and more reluctant to strictly respect social distancing measures, thus facilitating the spread of the virus. Despite the surge in the number of new cases, the pandemic seems to be under control for the moment. However, we are not out of the woods yet. It is unclear whether the health system will have the capacity to simultaneously deal with COVID-19 and flu this fall if the number of hospital and intensive care unit entries would sharply rise.

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited
Suite 1, Level 14, 9 Castlereagh St
Sydney NSW 2000
Australia

Contact Saxo

Select region

Australia
Australia

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-au/about-us/awards

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited ABN 32 110 128 286 AFSL 280372 (‘Saxo’ or ‘Saxo Capital Markets’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms, Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products such as CFDs and Margin FX products may result in your losses surpassing your initial deposits. Saxo Capital Markets does not provide ‘personal’ financial product advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan.
Please click here to view our full disclaimer.