background image background image background image

NY Open: Waiting for the shoe to drop

Equities 4 minutes to read
Michael O’Neill

FX Trader,

Summary:  Financial markets are tense when they should be at ease. It’s like they’re waiting for the other shoe to drop and that shoe is President Trump.

The latest round of US and China trade concluded on a positive note. The Federal Open Market Committee minutes were released, and they concurred with Fed Chair Powell’s January 4 comments that the Fed could afford to take a patient approach to rate hikes. There isn’t any major US data on tap today to warrant caution, yet there is a whiff of risk aversion in the air.

Wall Street is paring some of this week’s gains, despite Chinese and US officials saying the trade talks are going well. That’s because they have not shown any evidence to support the claims. Weaker than expected sales data from retailers Macy’s and Kohl’s is being blamed for a bit of the equity market malaise.

Traders are also a tad concerned that their ability to assess the US economy may be hampered by economic data release delays due to the ongoing US government shutdown. They were also nervous about the possible ripple effect from the news that Ford was slashing jobs and closing plants in Europe. The Nasdaq erased all of yesterday’s gains by 15:00 GMT. The DJIA was down 0.58%, and the S&P 500 lost 0.67%.

Those moves may be reversed in the afternoon if Fed Chair Jerome Powell repeats and/or reinforces his somewhat dovish comments from January 4, when he addresses the Washington Economic Club at noon. A parade of dovish Fed speakers has been heard over the past few days, and traders are waiting to see if Powell is in that choir.

A major reason for financial market nervousness is President Trump and how he takes rejection. The Democrats rejected his demand for funding for a Mexico border wall, and he reportedly stormed out of the meeting yesterday afternoon. Trump says he will continue to veto every spending bill that doesn’t include money for the wall, which suggests a prolonged government shutdown. This morning Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin warned that the government shutdown would soon have a negative impact on business confidence.
Chart: USDJPY 30-minute.  Source: Saxo Bank

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service. Access and use of Saxo News & Research and any Saxo Bank Group website are subject to (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; and (iii) the Risk Warning in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group.

Saxo News & Research is provided for informational purposes, does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. No Saxo Bank Group entity shall be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information on Saxo News & Research.

To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, such content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication.

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments.Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Capital Markets or its affiliates.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Full Disclaimer (
- Analysis Disclaimer (
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited
Suite 1, Level 14, 9 Castlereagh St
Sydney NSW 2000

Contact Saxo

Select region


The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited ABN 32 110 128 286 AFSL 280372 (‘Saxo’ or ‘Saxo Capital Markets’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms, Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Saxo Capital Markets does not provide ‘personal’ financial product advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. The Target Market Determination should assist you in determining whether any of the products or services we offer are likely to be consistent with your objectives, financial situation and needs.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan.

Please click here to view our full disclaimer.