Head of Equity Strategy
Summary: Today's Footonomics is about Italy vs Turkey which are playing the opening match tonight in Rome on the old Olympic stadium. Italy wins on misery index, but in real life football one should never count out Turkey. On equities the match is between Enel and QNB Finansbank, which the Italian utility wins 2-1 on better equity fundamentals. Steen's and Peter's prediction is that Azzurri wins 3-1.
Match: Italy vs Turkey
Macro: The Italian job vs. Turkish Delight
As this is the first Footonomics, we will briefly describe our take on equities during the tournament. We have selected the largest publicly listed company on market capitalization for each country. Each company is scored on growth, valuation, and return on equity, and the combined fundamentals will decide the outcome of the match in equities. See the whole list of companies below. One thing to note is that the list is typical European dominated by boring value stocks. The only countries/companies that smell of the future and growth are ASML (Netherlands), Allegro.eu (Poland), and LVMH (France).
Equities: Enel vs QNB Finansbank
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
