Mon 26 Jul 21: Tesla's 2Q Earnings due After-Mkt Mon 26 Jul 21: Tesla's 2Q Earnings due After-Mkt Mon 26 Jul 21: Tesla's 2Q Earnings due After-Mkt

Mon 26 Jul 21: Tesla's 2Q Earnings due After-Mkt

Equities 2 minutes to read
Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist

Summary:  Erns Watch aims to highlight some of the key names that are in heavy rotation on investors' & traders' radars.

(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)

Mon 26 Jul 21: Tesla's 2Q Earnings due After-Mkt 



Tesla: $643.38 Price, Mkt Cap $620B, -10% YTD, P/E 100x, 2Q $0.974 EPS, Rev $11.4B

  • With the stock down close to 10% YTD & down -30% from its ATH of $900, its likely worth bearing in mind that Tesla finished 2020 up +743% (from $83 to $705) & joined the S&P 500 index. 

    TSLA YTD chart 2021

  • Whether you are an absolute fanatic about the company & its esoteric founder... love it or hate it, Tesla's earnings are always a key event during the reporting season. Think the 100M sprinting event in the Olympics. 

  • To add to this mix, similar to MicroStrategy [MSTR], the market will be looking to see how Tesla's accounts for its Bitcoin purchase - which interestingly enough is correlating to the Mon Asia session seeing Bitcoin $ 38,355 flying by +11% & now being up c. +21% over the last 5 trading days.  

  • Tesla did recognize a small gain in Bitcoin in its first quarter results, yet for the 2Q BTC is down over -41% to a quarterly close of around $34,585. 

  • As always, contribution from carbon credits will also be scrutinized. 

  • The name continues to trade expensively at 100x fwd P/E, or c. 68x Price to Cash Flow. 

  • 2Q EPS est are $0.974 c. +123% QoQ, with Revenue QoQ growth of +88% to $11.4B.

  • Operating profit is expected to make a new high with a QoQ +150% growth to $817M.

  • From a production standpoint (post delivering +200K cars for the first time in 2Q21) investors will be looking for updates on Tesla's plants in Germany & Texas (when do they come on-line), as well as an update on Tesla's strategy in China - in particular given the continued souring of US / CH relations. As well as chip shortage that seems to be impacting everyone in the auto space. 

  • Full year expectations for 2021 are c. 865K cars according to Barrons. Given that c. 290K cars were produced in 1H21, the skew for the heavy lift is very much a 2H21 affair. Given renewed Delta variant concerns & pockets of restrictions globally, this could go either way. 

  • Analysts have 43% buys in the name, vs. 23% sells with an avg. 12M price target of $624, c. -3% from Fri's close of $643.38. The analyst price range forecasts is wide, ranging from $1,200 (+87%) to $550 (-15%).

Start-to-End = Gratitude + Integrity + Vision + Tenacity. Process > Outcome. Sizing > Idea.

This is the way


Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service. Access and use of Saxo News & Research and any Saxo Bank Group website are subject to (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; and (iii) the Risk Warning in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group.

Saxo News & Research is provided for informational purposes, does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. No Saxo Bank Group entity shall be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information on Saxo News & Research.

To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, such content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication.

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments.Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Capital Markets or its affiliates.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Full Disclaimer (
- Analysis Disclaimer (
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited
Suite 1, Level 14, 9 Castlereagh St
Sydney NSW 2000

Contact Saxo

Select region


The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited ABN 32 110 128 286 AFSL 280372 (‘Saxo’ or ‘Saxo Capital Markets’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms, Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Saxo Capital Markets does not provide ‘personal’ financial product advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. The Target Market Determination should assist you in determining whether any of the products or services we offer are likely to be consistent with your objectives, financial situation and needs.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan.

Please click here to view our full disclaimer.