Despite the “surprise” Non-farm Payrolls figures for September against the market’s expectation of a bad number the overall picture of the world is an economy that is slowing down fast. Our main scenario is still that the fourth quarter will be a kitchen sink quarter where global earnings growth goes negative, FOMC makes two rate cuts (October rate cut has a 76% probability priced by the market), employment changes in developed countries will selectively go negative and equity markets will see at least a 10% drawdown.
Despite decade high economic uncertainty and weakening numbers global equities are still close to all-time highs. It does not reflect economic or earnings trajectory so the only sensible explanation for why equities remain bid is the sense that central bank puts will support the market through amble liquidity and that the spillover effects from the manufacturing recession will be limited and short-lived. Fed Vice Chair Clarida’s comments yesterday to the Wall Street Journal that recession risk remains low, with appropriate monetary policy, seems to be current narrative bought by central bankers and most investors.