Crypto Weekly: Bitcoin is close to a 2-year low Crypto Weekly: Bitcoin is close to a 2-year low Crypto Weekly: Bitcoin is close to a 2-year low

Crypto Weekly: Bitcoin is close to a 2-year low

Mads Eberhardt

Cryptocurrency Analyst

Summary:  Bitcoin has almost wiped out its return in the recent bull market as it nears a 2-year low, but a long-awaited decrease in the hash rate of Bitcoin offers miners some relief.

Bitcoin is close to a 2-year low price

As fear spread in early November following the collapse of the crypto exchange FTX, the Bitcoin price realized a new local bottom of about 15,500 (BTCUSD). The latter was nearly a 2-year low for Bitcoin. In the following weeks, Bitcoin recovered slightly before declining again, as it presently trades at 16,200. If Bitcoin were to go below 15,500 at this moment, it would trade at a 2-year low because time simply caught up with Bitcoin, as the latter surged throughout November 2020. Bitcoin seems to be trading in the range 15,500 and 17,000 for now, but in case Bitcoin breaks its support of 15,500, the next level of support is around 12,300.

In the recent crypto bear market of 2018 and 2019, the Bitcoin price bottomed out in December 2018 more or less exactly a year after hitting an all-time high in December 2017. In case it is to be repeated in this bear market, it should be true that Bitcoin’s local bottom was at 15,500, which price was achieved more or less exactly a year after Bitcoin’s all-time high in November 2021. However, this time around, given that the macro situation is much worse, the interest rates are rising, and the printers of central banks have run out of ink are not promising for the potential scenario that Bitcoin has already bottomed out.

Speaking of the past, Bitcoin greatly outperformed any other cryptocurrency in 2018. Yet, in the current bear market Ethereum has managed to keep up with Bitcoin so far. At the moment, Ethereum trades at around 0.072 against Bitcoin. The latter was more or less the average price of this trading pair in all of 2021. It seems the less issuance of new Ether following the Ethereum merge and the greater demand for Ethereum-based transactions due to a greater ecosystem are what keep Ethereum close to Bitcoin. This is particularly of interest in case we at some point experience a bull run similar to 2017 and 2021. In that case, Ethereum may greatly outperform Bitcoin. Ethereum trades at 1,170 (ETHUSD), still far from its 2-year low.

The Bitcoin hash rate offers miners some relief

We wrote last week about Bitcoin’s ever-increasing hash rate in the past year, although the Bitcoin price has been on a constant downward trajectory. This is contrary to what is expected to be the case, namely that the price and hash rate should be positively correlated, as miners can afford to operate more computational power in times with a high Bitcoin price. The lower price but higher hash rate has pushed many miners into financial trouble.

In the past week, however, miners could sense some relief on the horizon. Over the past week, the hash rate has decreased by around 10%, potentially decreasing further in the foreseeable future. This makes it more profitable for miners to mine Bitcoins and may delay consolidation between miners, which would make the network more centralized.

Bitcoin hash rate (blue line). Source:
Bitcoin/USD - Source: Saxo Group
Ethereum/USD - Source: Saxo Group

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service. Access and use of Saxo News & Research and any Saxo Bank Group website are subject to (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; and (iii) the Risk Warning in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group.

Saxo News & Research is provided for informational purposes, does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. No Saxo Bank Group entity shall be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information on Saxo News & Research.

To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, such content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication.

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments.Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Capital Markets or its affiliates.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Full Disclaimer (
- Analysis Disclaimer (
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited
Suite 1, Level 14, 9 Castlereagh St
Sydney NSW 2000

Contact Saxo

Select region


The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited ABN 32 110 128 286 AFSL 280372 (‘Saxo’ or ‘Saxo Capital Markets’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms, Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Saxo Capital Markets does not provide ‘personal’ financial product advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. The Target Market Determination should assist you in determining whether any of the products or services we offer are likely to be consistent with your objectives, financial situation and needs.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan.

Please click here to view our full disclaimer.