Technical Update - Crude oil struggling for momentum. Gasoline breaking falling trendline. Natural gas powering higher
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Brent Crude oil is struggling to get upside momentum following the bottom and reversal Hammer candle 2 weeks ago. However, if Brent can close above $107.70 it has confirmed a short-term uptrend. Next obstacles are the rising (black) trendline and the 0.618 retracement at 113.52.
To reverse the rebound picture still under development a close below 96.75 id needed.
WTI crude oil is struggling more than Brent having tested the key support at around $92.93 twice. A close above 105.24 is needed for confirmation of a short-term uptrend. However, 55 and 100 SMA’s are coming down likely putting a damper on a potential rise. We could see a period of sideways range trading in oil.
Gasoline is at the time of writing trading above its short-term falling trend line after bouncing from support at around $300. RSI showing divergence indicating a reversal. If Gasoline closes above 350 it is likely to establish an uptrend that can take it to the 0.618 retracement at 382.
If Gasoline closes below 298 the rebound scenario is reversed
Sellers in Dutch TTF gas tried last week to push the price below key support at €152 only for buyers to take immediate control resulting in Dutch gas to close above the support. 152 support is too strong.
Dutch gas is set for higher prices and is likely to reach 229 possibly 242 within 1-2 weeks. If gas prices break above its upper rising trendline prices could accelerate. Key resistance seems to be around $205-214.50.
Henry Hub gas is going ballistic breaking all potential Fibonacci retracement levels. Henry Hub is on course to test June highs around $9.66 where from a correction is not unlikely. However, there are no signs of divergence on RSI indicating new highs are likely.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook Q3 2022: The Runaway Train
- Central banks' attempts to kill inflation is a paradigm shift, which could end in a deep recession.
Tangible assets and profitable growth are the winnersWith US equities officially in a bear market, the big question is where and when is the bottom in the current drawdown?
Understanding the lack of investment appetite among oil majorsThe everything rally seen in recent quarters has become more uneven, as its strength is driven by commodities in short supply.
The pressure is on as the wind leaves the sailsWith cryptocurrencies in sharp decline, are we entering a crypto winter or is the bear market a healthy clean-up of the crypto space?
Why the Fed can never catch up and what turns the US dollar lower?Many other central banks are set to eventually outpace the Fed in hiking rates, taking their real interest rates to levels higher than the Fed will achieve.
Bank of Japan: Swimming against the tideThe Japanese economy has gone from the age of deflation to rapidly rising prices in no time, leaving the Bank of Japan in a pickle.
Green transformation detour and bear market hibernationWith the impending risk of global econonomic derailment, we share the five things investors need to consider in this new half year.
Crisis redux for the eurozone?Whether there's going to be a recession in Europe or not, the path towards a stable economy will be agonizing.
Technical Outlook: Gold, Oil and a remarkable multi-decade perspective on EquitiesThe Nasdaq bubble pattern, USDJPY resistance, crude oil uptrend losing steam and the technical outlook for USD.
China: the train of new development paradigm left the station two years agoChina is transiting to a new development paradigm, as they are hit by deteriorating terms of trade, a slower global economy and an uncertain future while continuing attempts to contain the pandemic.