Technical Update - US 2-, 10- and 30-year Treasury yields and German 10-year Bund yields pointing lower Technical Update - US 2-, 10- and 30-year Treasury yields and German 10-year Bund yields pointing lower Technical Update - US 2-, 10- and 30-year Treasury yields and German 10-year Bund yields pointing lower

Technical Update - US 2-, 10- and 30-year Treasury yields and German 10-year Bund yields pointing lower

Bonds 4 minutes to read
KCL
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank

Summary:  US Treasury yields have taken out key support levels and have now confirmed bearish trends.
German Bund yields still in uptrend but breaking rising trendline


US 2-year Treasury yields have closed below key support at around 4.75. A move down to support at around 4.57 and the 200 Daily Moving Average seems likely.

RSI below 40 threshold is confirming the bearish trend

To reverse the bearish trend a close above 4.92 is needed

 

Source: Saxo Group

US 10-year Treasury yields have closed below 4.36 key support level and RSI closed below 40 threshold thereby confirming downtrend.

Yields are also below the 100 DMA for the first time since May.
There is now downside risk to support at around 4.07 but 4% could be tested. The 200 DMA will add to the support.

For 10-year yields to reverse to uptrend a close above 4.52 is needed.

Source: Saxo Group

US 30-year Treasury yields have been in a downtrend since breaking below 4.60 and further confirmed since RSI closed below 40.
Currently testing support at around 4.47. A close below can lead to further downside possibly down to strong support at 4.18 with minor support at 4.30

For US 30-year yields to reverse the trend a close above 4.83
A close above 4.62 will pause or demolish the bearish scenario

Source: Bloomberg

German 10-year Bund yields have broken below its short-term rising trendline. There has been RSI divergence for quite some time indicating a weakening and possible exhaustion of the bullish trend
Maybe that was the peak. However, RSI is still above 40 threshold i.e., in positive sentiment, a close below 40 will change that.

Some support at the 0.618 retracement at 2.34 and at the 0.786 at 2.15.
Strong support at around 1.92-1.74.

If the Bund yields move back above the lower rising trendline the reversal pattern could be in jeopardy. A close above 3.025 will resume uptrend
Source: Bloomberg
Disclaimer

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/.

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service. Access and use of Saxo News & Research and any Saxo Bank Group website are subject to (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; and (iii) the Risk Warning in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group.

Saxo News & Research is provided for informational purposes, does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. No Saxo Bank Group entity shall be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information on Saxo News & Research.

To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, such content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication.

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments.Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Capital Markets or its affiliates.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Full Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
- Analysis Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/analysis-disclaimer/saxo-analysis-disclaimer)
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited
Suite 1, Level 14, 9 Castlereagh St
Sydney NSW 2000
Australia

Contact Saxo

Select region

Australia
Australia

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-au/about-us/awards

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited ABN 32 110 128 286 AFSL 280372 (‘Saxo’ or ‘Saxo Capital Markets’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms, Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Saxo Capital Markets does not provide ‘personal’ financial product advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. The Target Market Determination should assist you in determining whether any of the products or services we offer are likely to be consistent with your objectives, financial situation and needs.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan.

Please click here to view our full disclaimer.