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Crude oil and US dollar setup ahead of the New Year

Podcast 20 minutes to read
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Saxo Market Call

Summary:  Today we look at the light positioning in crude oilmarkets ahead of the New Year, offering plenty of space for big moves next year, particularly if demand picks up. Also, a look at one measure of US dollar positioning that suggests bulls may have a hard time finding more fuel for an extension higher. We also cover the latest on the natural gas situation in Europe, positioning in other commodity markets, other FX perspectives and more. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Listen to today’s podcast and have a look at today’s slide deck.

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Questions and comments, please!
We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.

Outrageous Predictions 2023: The War Economy

  • OP drawing - 352x202 Mobile number 1

    Billionaire coalition creates trillion-dollar Manhattan Project for energy

    The constantly growing global need for energy drives the world's richest to huddle up and launch a R&D project in a size the world hasn't seen since the Manhattan Project gave the US the first atomic bomb.
    Read article
  • OP drawing - 352x202 Mobile number 2

    French President Macron resigns

    The political stalemate in France and the rise of Marie Le Pen following the 2022 elections corners President Macron, forcing him to give up on politics and resign from his position. At least for now.
    Read article
  • OP drawing - 352x202 Mobile number 3

    Gold rockets to USD 3,000 as central banks fail on inflation mandate

    As markets and central banks realise that the idea that inflation is transitory is wrong, and that prices will remain higher for longer, gold is sent through the roof, hitting a price tag of USD 3,000
    Read article
  • OP drawing - 352x202 Mobile number 4

    EU Army forces EU down path to full union

    With continued challenges in the region and a US military that isn't aggressively enacting its former role as global policeman, the European Union agrees to create its own armed forces, bringing the whole region closer.
    Read article
  • OP drawing - 352x202 Mobile number 5

    A country agrees to ban all meat production by 2030

    In an effort to become one of the global leaders on the path to net-zero emissions, one country decides to not only put a heavy tax on meat, but to ban domestic production entirely.
    Read article
  • OP drawing - 352x202 Mobile number 6

    UK holds UnBrexit referendum

    Following a recession and domestic pressure, the United Kingdom is thrown into political turmoil that will end with a vote to wind back Brexit.
    Read article
  • OP drawing - 352x202 Mobile number 7

    Widespread price controls are introduced to cap official inflation

    History tells us that with the war economy comes rationing and price controls. And this time is no different, as policymakers introduce strict price controls that lead to a range of unintended consequences.
    Read article
  • OP drawing - 352x202 Mobile number 8

    OPEC+ & Chindia walk out of the IMF, agree to trade with new reserve asset

    Sanctions against Russia have caused widespread turmoil due to US Dollar moves in countries across the globe that don't consider the US an ally. To relieve themselves from this, they leave the IMF and create a new reserve asset.
    Read article
  • OP drawing - 352x202 Mobile number 9

    USDJPY fixed to the USD at 200 as Japan overhauls financial system

    Following the challenges that faced the Japanese Yen in 2022, the Bank of Japan attempts to keep the currency from sliding. Unsuccessful on the long-term, Japan will launch a reset of its entire financial system.
    Read article
  • OP drawing - 352x202 Mobile number 10

    Tax haven ban kills private equity

    With the war economy comes an increased focus on national interests and sovereign nations' ability to assert themselves. In that regard, the OECD countries turn their attention on tax havens and pull the big guns out, banning them altogether.
    Read article

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