Morning Brew October 26 2021
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Tesla Hype driving markets higher
News of the day yesterday was Hertz which announced to purchase 100k Tesla vehicles sparking a surge in Tesla’s stock price, sending the valuation to above 1 Trio USD for the first time and adding 100bio in market cap to Tesla with a 4.2 bio transaction. Talk about leverage.
The Dow as well as the S&P 500 hit new highs and European Equities are also looking friendly with the Dax at 15620 and the Eurostoxx 50 at 4194.
The German IFO disappointed yesterday weighing on the EUR, the EURUSD fell to currently 1.1605 and GBPUSD remained little changed at 1.3760. That let the USD index increase a little. The Turkish Lira was able to stabilize it`s decline for now after President Erdogan tried to deescalate the tensions he caused late last week. Gold and Silver are trading calmly at higher levels, Gold above the 1800 at 1805 and Silver at 24.50.
Bitcoin remains below the recent high looking for direction, currently trading at 62300.
UBS beat expectations today with Q3 earnings at USD 2.27 bio vs an expectation of USD 1.6 bio. Pre-tax profit for the investment banking division jumped 32%. Novartis is considering to sell Sandoz
European Energy ministers are meeting today to consider ways to deal with the energy crisis, possibly affecting energy prices through the day.
Watch out for earnings by UPS, AMD, GE, Microsoft, 3M, Alphabet, Visa, Twitter, Robinhood and others before and after the close, key economic data will be the US consumer confidence at 16:00 CET.
Physically Settled Futures:
NGX1 will expire 27th October at 15:00 GMT
EMAX1 will expire 28th October at 09:00 GMT
HGX1, RRX1, XKX1, ZSX1 will expire 28th October at 15:00 GMT
GASOLINEUSNOV21, HEATINGOILNOV21, SOYBEANSNOV21 will expire 27th October at 15:00 GMT
CHINA50OCT21, INDIA50OCT21, SINGAPOREOCT21, TAIWAN95OCT21 will expire 28th October at 02:00 GMT
OILUKDEC21 will expire 29th October at 15:00 GMT
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook Q3 2022: The Runaway Train
- Winter is coming to the financial markets as central banks are tightening their grip. How spring will look is still a question.
European energy crisis: it will get worse before it gets betterThe winter in Europe will be tough, but whether the result is political chaos or sustainable, innovative solutions is still undecided.
A difficult and volatile quarter awaitsAs the year draws to an end, commodities continue to be at centre stage of the world with growth pockets political uncertainty.
The bright side: crises drive innovationThe positive spin on crises is that they come with solutions. It is worrisome that deglobalisation may be a response to this crisis.
Green transformation in China: renewable energy and beyondGoing green, China needs to span numerous energy sources to ensure stability, as every source comes with a challenge.
Asia: Intermittent solutions, but a faster renewable adoption curveAsian energy supply is being squeezed. This and the adoption of renewables may change the investment sentiment in the region.
FX: A Fed thaw needed to deliver a sustained USD turn lowerThe US Dollar can keep momentum when the Federal Reserve continues to tighten, leaving the rest to play to their drum.
Autumn can become ugly for equities and bond holders. Comfort for Dollar longsTechnical analysis suggests that equities could face a tough Q4 as could fixed income. US Dollar positions could provide some upside.
The next stock market sector to watch, with stocks going nuclearAs the world scrambles to find affordable, sustainable energy, nuclear is getting attention from politicians and investors alike.
The crypto space is getting cold when the hype disappearsCryptocurrencies face a winter of their own as retail investors and governments are asking tough questions.