Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew May 10 2023

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  US CPI key for today


Good Morning

Markets were rather quiet while I was travelling. Focus is clearly on the CPI Release today at 14:30 with the core expected at 5.5% and the overall annual number at 5%. As Jerome Powell stated the Fed would decide the rate path based on data going forward, this release will be considered as very important for future guidance.

Interest Rate Traders still see no change at the next FOMC meeting in June but overall more than 2 cuts by year end. Also, talks around the debt ceiling are not progressing but continue and that is weighing on overall sentiment and causing traders to load up on put options on equities while the Vix Index remains low. 

2 year yields in the US are at 4.05% and the USD Index at 101.60, EURUSD 1.0970, GBPUSD 1.2625 and USDJPY 135.33. Gold and Silver are trading at 2030 and 25.60.

Equities are need a push either way for a clear direction, the most important level seems to be the 4200 in the US 500. A break above would open the way to test all-time highs. Currently the Index is trading at 4125, the US Tech 100 at 13214 and the GER40 at 15961. Toyota very strong results in fiscal Q4

The big question remains from where the next large impulse will come, there are several candidates starting with inflation and rates, the debt ceilings as well as geopolitics in the short term.

 

  • Today 
    Data: US CPI
    Earnings:  Blackstone, Teva, First Citizen Bankshares, Unity, Beyond Meat, Robinhood

Thursday: 
Data:China CPI and PPI, UK Rate decision, US Initial Jobless claims and PPI Machine Manufacturing,
Earnings:  JD.COM, IONQ, Getty Images,

  • Friday: 
    Data: UK GDP, France CPI, US Import Prices, University of Michigan Confidence.

 

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.