Morning Brew March 15 2024

Good morning,

A stronger than expected PPI let yields rise and added strength to the USD.

10 Year Yields rise to 4.28 and pull the USD Index higher to 103.38. EURUSD fallst to 1.0876, GBPUSD 1.2740 and USDJPY 148.30. Bitcoin falls to 68250. Gold and Siilver are very strong against the odds and are worth watching.

US Stocks traded a little lower with the Dow the strongest mover at -0.4%, Nvidia lost 3% as one large mover, Robinhood gained on a massive inflow of assets, but it was a fairly quiet day ahead of the quadruple witching Friday today and the central bank marathon next week.

Ole had a great podcast on commodities yesterday: Action Everywhere

The calendar today contains nothing to write home about but there could be sharp moves around the expiries and the if there was a significant surprise in the French or Italian  CPIs or US Industrial Production, it could move the markets.

The key event of the day no one seems to have on the agenda is the release of the Japanese Wage statistics. There is a consensus that the result will be significant for the Bank of Japan decision next week but normally the number is widely ignored. Charu took a look at the Yen : The Japanese yen is poised for event-driven volatility next week as both the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and FOMC meetings are scheduled. While signals on a BOJ pivot have become clearer lately, the resulting yen strength could remain uncertain. The BOJ needs to adopt a more hawkish stance both in action and rhetoric for the yen to strengthen, which remains unlikely. Additionally, a surprise hawkish turn from the FOMC poses a significant risk

Keep a close eye on Nvidia today after the sharp moves we saw last Friday, there could be some nervousness heading into the quarterly Options expiry.

Central Bank Decisions next week:

19^th Australia , Japan

20^th  Indonesia, Czech Brazil  US

21^st Switzerland, Turkey UK ^h

Trade safely and have a great weekend!

Erik