Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: FOMC Day
Good Morning to FOMC day
The slightly lower CPI yesterday caused the expectation for the FOMC decision tonight has shifted from approximately 70% in favor of no action to 90%.
Equities traded friendly on that news but unspectacularly so. The three large US Indexes all add less than 1%, and the GER40 holds near 16200. Volumes were rather high at 10% above average . AMD presented it`s AI strategy and the share dropped while Nvidia could profit by the same percentage amount and Nvidia closed above 1 trillion in Market cap.
The US Index is weak ahead of the rate decision at 103.32, EURUSD is 1,0780, GBPUSD 1,2610 and USDJPY crossed to above 140 on a weak Yen.
As US Yields remained firm after the CPI – It seems that FX / Rates and Equity traders follow different assumptions - Gold and Silver dropped before recovering again. Gold rose to 1970 just after the CPI then fell to 1940 to now trade 1947. The Turkish Lira remains near record weakness at above 23.65.
Unless there is a massive surprise in the rate decision, all focus tonight will be on the speech of Jerome Powell. Focus will be on the question on a dovish, neutral or dovish pause – should there be a hike, that question would be answered and focus would shift to the rationale.
The PPI should only move markets significantly if there were a real outlier.
Consider your position sizes and maybe use options for speculative exposures as markets are likely to move quickly later.
Wednesday June 14
UK GDP
US PPI Machine Manuf'ing
Rate decision
Earnings: Lennar
Thursday June 15
Japan Trade
China Retail Sales
ECB Refinancing Rate
US Retail Sales MM
Earnings: Adobe, Kroger, Jabil, Halma
Friday June 16
Italy CPI
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures
ADM3 will expire 15 Jun 2023 at 15:00 GMT
BPM3 will expire 15 Jun 2023 at 15:00 GMT
DXM3 will expire 15 Jun 2023 at 09:00 GMT
E7M3 will expire 15 Jun 2023 at 15:00 GMT
ECM3 will expire 15 Jun 2023 at 15:00 GMT
JYM3 will expire 15 Jun 2023 at 15:00 GMT
M6EM3 will expire 15 Jun 2023 at 15:00 GMT
MPM3 will expire 15 Jun 2023 at 15:00 GMT
MSFM3 will expire 15 Jun 2023 at 15:00 GMT
NEM3 will expire 15 Jun 2023 at 15:00 GMT
NOM3 will expire 15 Jun 2023 at 15:00 GMT
PJYM3 will expire 15 Jun 2023 at 15:00 GMT
RFM3 will expire 15 Jun 2023 at 15:00 GMT
RPM3 will expire 15 Jun 2023 at 15:00 GMT
RYM3 will expire 15 Jun 2023 at 15:00 GMT
SFM3 will expire 15 Jun 2023 at 15:00 GMT
Expiring CFDs
DEN25JUN23 will expire 14 Jun 2023 14:55 GMT
USDINDEXJUN23 will expire 14 Jun 2023 15:00 GMT
AUS200JUN23 will expire 15 Jun 2023 12:00 GMT
ZA40JUN23 will expire 15 Jun 2023 08:00 GMT
Futures can be rolled online via the Futures Spread Trade Ticket. Any open positions will be closed after the mentioned times.
Bond. Long Bond(s)
With real rates being too positive, we see three scenarios: Opportunity to lock in rates at cycle high, government overreach to keep the economy afloat or a complete reset of the economy.
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
Is a bond bull market ahead? Inflation still poses a risk for investors, but the moment for increasing duration to your portfolio may be approaching towards the end of the year, when central banks might be forced to cut interest rates.
Althea Spinozzi,
Senior Fixed Income Strategist
The furious rate hike cycle has brought gains in the US dollar, but with stagflation risks in Europe and the UK and weakness in the Chinese economy, USD may have more room to run. But a strong dollar could also have repercussions for US growth, emerging markets and commodity prices.
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
With the cost of capital rising painfully, stagflation fears are back, illuminating the fragile state of the green transformation, while giving a tailwind to nuclear power, and threatening the growth of AI-related stocks.
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
With supply tightness not only in energy but all commodities, the momentum in commodity prices may continue, pressuring central banks to lower real rates. That could be a good setup for precious metals, including gold, silver and potentially platinum as well.
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
As the pandemic showed, even the US Treasury can experience seismic shifts. With the government increasing the pace of issuing bonds to support fiscal spending, the complex Treasury market and regulatory constraints could spark a liquidity event.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
The tide has turned for bonds. Given the current yields, bonds have become an attractive investment, with added benefits including lower risk than stocks, increased diversification and a steady stream of income unaffected by economic changes.
Peter Siks,
Investment Coach