Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew July 8 2024

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Good morning,

We are entering a slow week in terms of data - that does not necessarily imply it will be boring though

Friday was quite exciting as predicted:

While the Non-Farm Payroll came a little higher, the surrounding data was quite bad, raising dovish hopes. Interest rate traders predict 53 basis point cuts in 2024 and the probability of a September cut is 80%.

Equities mainly rose. The Dow +0.2%, The S&P gained 0.5% and the Nasdaq 0.9%. This made for a great week, the Nasdaq gained 3.5%, the S&P 2% and the Dow 0.7%. Small Caps again fell behind with a loss of 1% for the week. Overall volumes were rather high given the US bridge holiday at 9.7 billion shares.

Meta rose nearly 6% on Friday, Apple 2.2% and Tesla 2%, Nvidia and Broadcom could not convince and fell 1.9 and 1.5% respectively.

Outside of the US, the GER40 rose 1.4% for the week, the EU Stocks 1.7% and the Nikkei 2.2%.

The stock to watch in Europe may be Rheinmetall today, the stock traded 5% lower on Friday but confirmed the biggest contract ever in Italy to the tune of €20 bio over the next 15 years,

In FX we saw strong moves, , the USD Index fell to a three-week low, GBPUSD rose to above 1.28, EURUSD 1.0835 and USDJPY 160.90.

Gold and Silver moved strongly as we had thought, Silver gained 2.7% and Gold 1.5%. Technically both have upside potential as Kim pointed out last week. Bloomberg estimates solar panels will require more than 25% of the world’s silver production in 2024. Bitcoin closed 3.3% lower, ETH lost more than 5%.
This morning there is some profit taking in precious Metals, Gold is now 2382 and Silver meandering the 31. Bitcoin and ETH are 55400 and 2915, Equities are also under a little pressure, likely as an initial fallout of the French Election.

For an in depth analysis of the week ahead check out Charu`s Chartbook

This week there are little key data releases, the exception being the US CPI on Thursday BUT there are sources of volatility
- French Election Fallout
- UK Election Fall out – the labor government has already taken steps to improve relations with the EU and ending the agreement with Rwanda
- Powells Testimony on Tuesday and Wednesday
- Peace talks in Israel
- Will Joe Biden remain in the race? The pressure is mounting
- Earning Season kicks off with the Delta Airlines and Pepsi on Thursday and 4 large banks on Friday.
- US CPI on Thursday

Monday
- Data  DE Trade, EU Sentix
Tuesday
- Data Jerome Powell gives his semi annual testimony in Congress, Michael Barr speak
Wednesday
- Data China CPI & PPI Powell continues his semi annual testimony

Thursday
- Data DE HICP UK  GDP, US CPI & Initial Jobless Claims, Cook & Bostic speak
- Earnings: DNB  Delta Airlines, Pepsi Cola
Friday
- Data Sweden & France CPI US PPI & University of Michigan Sentiment

- Earnings:  Bank of New York Mellon, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, JP Morgan Chace

 

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • 350x200 peter

    Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • 350x200 althea

    Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • 350x200 peter

    Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • 350x200 charu (1)

    FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • 350x200 ole

    Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.