Quarterly Outlook
Q3 Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
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Morning Brew July 5 2024
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Nonfarm Payroll hits thin liquidity
Good morning,
After the US Holiday and the UK election and ahead of the US labor data, equities are trading friendly the USD weaker. The US500 is 5536, the US Tech 100 at 20183, the GER40 18460 and the Japan 225 40800.
EURUSD rose to above 1.08 at 1.0820, Cable is 1.2760 and USDJPY 160.75. Gold and Silver are friendly at 2363 and 30.54, Bitcoin is 54.125. Ethereum 2880
We have massive event risk today:
- Todays highlight will be the US labor market data at 14:30 with it`s implication for the Fed`s rate outlook
- Nonfarm Payroll expected at 190K after 272 last month
- Unemployment Rate: 4%
- Average earnings: 3.9% - The second round of the French election with risk for the Euro and European Equities
- The runoff election in Iran
- Thin liquidity due to the bridge holiday in the US. This could be a could day to push precious metals either direction as so often on a Friday.
General Headlines:
UK election: Rishi Sunak concedes the UK Election as Conservatives win the lowest number of seats ever. Right now, labor looks to have won 410 of 650 seats and to hold absolute majority.
The Pressure on Joe Biden to make room for a more agile candidate are mounting.
Bitcoin traded under pressure and below 55k now. Reason for the selloff could be Mt. Gox moving large amounts of BTC, there are also rumors the German state might dispose of billions worth of Bitcoin.
Japanese Equities hit an all time high in the Nikkei 225 as well as the broader Topix.
Trade tensions are on the rise as European tariffs on EV come into effect, China is seen to announce measures as well.
JPMorgan’s Top Markets Strategist Marko Kolanovic is leaving after nearly 20 years after recent string of poor predictions, it is not a good year for bears.
Samsung Electronics announced that operating profits are expected to have risen 15 times in Q2 due to higher chip prices.
Trade safely!
Friday DE Industrial Production, UK House Prices, Swiss FX Reserves, US Nonfarm & Unemployment, Canada Labor Market Data
Monday DE Trade Data: , EU Sentix
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