Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Small moves but risks remain at large
Good Morning,
There have been few significant moves over the 4th of July holiday, This morning, Equityx Futures are friendly, gaining app 0.5% across the board, the USD Index meanders arroud the 105.10, US10 Year rates are at 2.95. Oil trades higher on news of a as a strike in Norway and Gold and Silver can rise to 1811 and 20.13.
EURUSD is at 1.0440 and GBPUSD at 1.2120. USDJPY is rangebound below 137 at currently at 136.20. according to the charts, either a break above 137 or a drop below 134.25 is required to break the range.
Bitcoin can rise above the 20k again.
Chinas Caixin Services PMI jumps massively from 41.4 last month to 54.5.. Australia's central bank on Tuesday hiked rates for a third month in a row and gave a hawkish outlook.
Today there is a load of 2nd tier data, PMIs out of Europe through the morning with most important the EU one at 10:00. US Factory orders at 16:00 are probably the most important release, tomorrow German Industrial Orders will be closely watched at 8:00 after yesterdays horrible Trade Balance, EU Retail Sales at 11:00 and the US PMI will be in focus. In the evening, the Fed minutes will be closely watched.
Germany is trying to prepare for gas-outages and the EUR as well as the Dax could move significantly on any tangible news.
Continue to trade carefully and do not overextend yourself, participants remain on edge and higher than normal fluctuations call for stricter risk management.
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures:
CN2 will expire 6th July 9:00 GMT.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.