Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
You can access both of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
Morning Brew January 30 2023
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Will Goldilocks survive the week?
Good Morning
Yesterday was a fairly clam but positive day on fairly smaller volumes. We saw a new record in the S&P 500 and the US 500 is currently at 4926. The Dow gained 0.6%, the S&P500 0.75% and the Nasdaq 1.1%. Volume on US Exchanges was 10% below the 20 day average at 10.3 billion shares. The GER40 rose to 17k, the Japan 225 36k.
Most interesting movers yesterday were Tesla, with finally a strong day up 4.2%, iRobot lost 8.8% on failed merger plans with Amazon.
Toyota Motor sold 11.2 million vehicles in 2023 and remains the largest car manufacturer.
US 10 Year Yields fell to 4.05 and the USD Index is little changed at 103.50. EURUSD is trading at 1.0823, GBPUSD 1.2707 and USDJPY lower at 147.35.
Gold and Silver trade higher at 23.20 and 2033, Bitcoin could rise to 43300.
Over the next few days, markets carry a huge event risk from earnings, economic releases and geopolitics. Any negative surprise can rock the boat and cause spikes in volatility – consider optionality to ensure against adverse moves.
Key Readings by our Strats team:
Peter`s Earnings Watch:
Earnings Watch: Big earnings week with technology giants in focus
Althea`s FOMC Preview:
FOMC preview: the Fed might be on hold, but easing is inevitable.
Ole`s COT Report
COT: Squeeze risks after funds sold into rising commodity markets
Also by Ole a Video on the price of Coffee:
Tuesday
- Data JP Unemployment , AU Retail Sales. CH KOF Indicator, European GDPs, JOLTS Job Openings US Consumer Confidence
- Earnings: Volvo, Stryker, Mondelez, Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), AMD, Starbucks, Chubb, Danaher, Pfizer, UPS
Wednesday
- Data AU CPI, China PMI, DE Unemployment & CPI, CA GDP, US Rate decision
- Earnings: Novo Nordisk, Qualcomm, Mastercard, Novartis, Thermo Fisher Scientific, Boeing
Thursday
- Data JP& China PMI, Sweden Rate decision, Bank of England International PMI, US Initial Jobless claims
- Earnings: Apple, Roche, Amazon, Meta, Merck, Shell, Honeywell, Sanofi
Friday
- Data US Nonfarm Payrolls
- Earnings: Keyence, ExxonMobil, AbbVie, Chevron, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Bristol-Myers Squibb
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures
GCG4 will expire 30 Jan at 16:00 GMT.
MGCG4 will expire 30 Jan at 16:00 GMT.
HOG4 will expire 31 Jan at 16:00 GMT.
RBG4 will expire 31 Jan at 16:00 GMT.
LEG4 will expire 2 Feb at 16:00 GMT.
Expiring CFDs
CHINA50JAN24 will expire 30 Jan 2024 at 02:00 GMT.
OILUKMAR24 will expire 31 Jan 2024 at 02:00 GMT.
HK50JAN24 will expire 30 Jan at 14:00 GMT.
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