Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew January 16 2024

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Yields Pop on ECB Hawks - Waller to confirm?

Good Morning

After an initially calm day yesterday, hawkish comments out of Davos caused yields to rise, the USD to gain and Equities to slide.

The German and Austrian Central Bank Heads stated it was too early for rate cuts and eyes are now turning to the speech of Christoph Waller. He was a key cause in market expectations turning so dovish in November. He is speaking at 17:00 today.

As of now, we still see an expectation of more than 6 rate cuts in the US this year (-160 bps) and slightly less than 6 in the EU (-145 bps)

US 10 Year Yields rose to 4%, pulling the USD Index to 102.95. EURUSD fell to 1.0913, GBPUSD 1.2680 and USDJOY rose to above 146 to trade at 146.20. Gold and Silver fell to 2048 and 23.05, Bitcoin is relatively stable to 42650.

Equity Indexes are trading lower with the US 500 at 4760, the US Tech 100 NAS 16730 and the GER40 16530.

Koen issued a new volatility report: and Ole his Commitment of Traders

Today will be an interesting day with German and Canadian Data, The Waller Speech at 17:00 CET as likely the key event and some important earnings. The Middle East remains extremely dangerous with Hamas confirming the execution of hostages while the Houthi rebels attack ships in the Red Sea. 

The WEF in Davos will formally begin today and we can expect market moving comments

Have a successful day!


- Data Germany HICP & ZEW, Canada CPI,
- Earnings: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Interactive Brokers,

- Data China GDP, Retail Sales, UK CPI, EU HICP, US Retail Sales,
- Earnings: Alcoa, Charles Schwab, US Bancorp,

- Data Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed,
- Earnings: TSMC,

- Data Japan CPI, UK Retail Sales EU Consumer Confidence,



The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
Full disclaimer (
Full disclaimer (

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15

Contact Saxo

Select region


Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.